Ethereum Surges 10% to $3,000 on Retail Demand Spike

Ethereum has finally surpassed the $3,000 mark, a psychological barrier it has struggled to break for months. The surge in price is not merely a technical achievement but also a behavioral shift, driven by a notable increase in short-term wallet activity. This activity suggests a resurgence in retail demand, which is evident in the on-chain data.

According to Glassnode’s HODL Waves, which measure the percentage of ETH held across different age bands, there has been a steady growth in short-term holders, particularly in the 1-week to 1-month, 1-month to 3-month, and even 10-year bands over the past few days. This spike indicates increased participation from newer wallets, serving as a proxy for retail demand. Compared to the all-time HODL wave chart, where long-term holding bands usually dominate, this sudden bump in short-term cohorts stands out, signaling a rotation into active trading behavior.

As Ethereum tests the $3,000 zone, the In and Out of the Money data provides critical context for the rally's potential. The largest on-chain wallet cluster sits between $2,237 and $2,523, where millions of addresses are currently in profit. This range serves as the base of the current move, indicating where conviction likely originated. If momentum weakens, this level is most likely to act as strong support, as holders in profit tend to double down rather than sell.

Above current levels, Ethereum is entering a breakeven-heavy band between $2,968 and $3,230. Past this, the next red zone of out-of-the-money holders sits above $3,230, where profit-taking risk increases. The breakeven band Ethereum is navigating right now is where momentum gets tested. Break it cleanly, and the path to $3,500 opens up. Lose it, and the rally risks slipping back to stronger conviction zones around $2,523.

Ethereum’s recent push above $3,000 brings it to a key resistance zone; the 0.618 Fibonacci extension, drawn using trend-based levels from the $1,388 swing low, $2,869 peak, and the retracement low of $2,123. This puts $3,045 as the immediate resistance, and $3,295 (0.786 Fib level) as the next ceiling if the rally holds. These Fib levels closely align with the In and Out of the Money resistance clusters between $2,968 and $3,230, where a large group of ETH holders is sitting at breakeven. This confluence reinforces the idea that momentum is being tested here, both by technicals and wallet behavior.

However, one key metric is flashing a warning. Despite ETH’s price pushing higher, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) has failed to break past its previous high from the last peak at $2,890. This divergence indicates that volume isn’t fully supporting the rally; a classic sign of momentum stalling. OBV tracks the cumulative net volume. If price rises while OBV falls, it often signals weakening demand or fewer new buyers entering the market. A breakdown below $2,693 would confirm the divergence’s weight at the 0.382 Fib level. This level would become the technical invalidation point and could push ETH prices towards $2,475 or lower.

In summary, Ethereum's recent surge above $3,000 is driven by a spike in retail demand, as evidenced by increased short-term wallet activity. The rally faces key resistance levels, both technically and behaviorally, which will determine its next move. While the momentum appears strong, the divergence in OBV suggests that volume support is waning, which could pose a risk to the rally's sustainability. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether Ethereum can maintain its upward trajectory or face a correction.