Ethereum Surges 10% to $2,600 as ETF Flows and Whale Activity Boost Demand

Ethereum (ETH) has recently surged past the $2,600 mark, a level it has struggled to maintain for several weeks. This latest climb is supported by several key indicators, including on-chain metrics, exchange data, and ETF flows, all of which suggest a stronger foundation for the ETH price.

On-chain metrics reveal that over 3.45 million ETH has a cost basis in the $2,513–$2,536 zone, indicating that this range is a significant support level. This zone is where many long-term buyers accumulated their holdings, and they are currently sitting on small profits. The concentration of ETH in this price range acts as a psychological and technical floor, with buyers reluctant to sell at these levels. This is reinforced by the Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap, which shows dense yellow-to-green bands, suggesting that whales and funds are actively defending this zone. This bullish signal indicates that when whales buy and hold, they tend to support price stability during volatile periods.

ETF inflows have been steadily increasing, with net spot Ethereum ETF inflows showing consistent growth throughout late June and early July. This consistent inflow of funds signals fresh buying interest, which can absorb available supply. On days with higher inflows, the ETH price tends to bounce, a pattern that has repeated itself for weeks. With the U.S. market opening up to more ETH-based products, including new custodial structures, the flows could increase rapidly, further supporting the price.

Ethereum’s total exchange reserves have fallen to just under 19 million ETH, a historically low level. This indicates that traders are hesitant to send ETH back to exchanges, resulting in fewer tokens available for immediate selling. When demand picks up, as seen with ETFs or on-chain accumulations, prices can move faster due to limited supply. This combination of whales holding, exchanges being dry, and ETFs filling the gap creates a powerful bullish scenario.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the ETH/USD chart suggest that the key resistance was around $2,529, which has now been successfully breached. The next significant resistance comes in at $2,850, also suggested by the Fibonacci indicator and a prior high from early June. If the ETH price clears $2,650 with volume, momentum could easily carry it to this level. With buyers protecting the $2,500 zone, exchange reserves tight, and ETF flows supporting demand, the current Ethereum price structure leans bullish. Any pullback to $2,520–$2,540 will likely be bought quickly unless there is a drastic macro change. As long as ETH holds above this zone, the path of least resistance remains upward.