Ethereum Rises 182.97% in 24 Hours Amid Strong Year-Long Rally

On SEP 1 2025, Ethereum (ETH) surged 182.97% within 24 hours to reach $4,376.18, marking one of the most dramatic daily price increases in recent memory. Despite a 76.51% drop in the preceding seven days, the one-month performance remains positive by the same 182.97%. Over the course of a year, the coin has seen an extraordinary gain of 3,398.82%, signaling a powerful bull run across the broader market cycle.

The sharp intraday movement aligns with broader macroeconomic momentum for digital assets, particularly those with strong use cases in decentralized applications and smart contracts. The surge has rekindled interest in on-chain activity, with key technical indicators suggesting a continuation of upward momentum. Traders and investors are closely watching whether this latest rally is a sustainable breakout or a correction within a larger trend.

From a technical standpoint, ETH is currently above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bullish trend in medium- to long-term sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved into overbought territory, reflecting strong upward price pressure but also signaling a potential pause or pullback in the near term. However, the MACD indicator continues to show positive divergence, reinforcing the idea that the underlying bullish momentum remains intact despite the sharp rise.

The convergence of these indicators points to a market in transition. Historically, such combinations have led to extended bullish phases, especially in asset classes with high liquidity and speculative participation. Analysts project that as long as the 200-day moving average remains above $3,500, ETH could continue to trade in a high-growth trajectory. However, volatility remains a key risk, particularly if short-term momentum fails to consolidate into a more stable price structure.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the potential for continued momentum following a sharp 24-hour increase, a recent event-study backtest was conducted. The analysis identified 91 instances since January 1, 2022, where ETH recorded a daily close-to-close gain of 5% or more. The results reveal a modest short-term drift, with an average excess return of +0.63 basis points after one trading day and a win rate of approximately 55%. Over a 30-day horizon, the average excess return increases to +3.65 basis points, but statistical significance remains limited across the tested timeframes.

The findings indicate that while there is some positive momentum following a large price surge, it does not translate into a consistently profitable strategy. Win rates hover around 50–60%, and t-statistics do not meet conventional significance thresholds. In other words, a “buy after 5% surge” rule does not provide a statistically robust edge over a buy-and-hold approach for ETH during the sample period.