Ethereum Rebounds 8.27% After Two-Week Sell-Off

Ethereum has recently shown signs of recovery, with an 8.27% rebound that has clawed back nearly 21% of its losses in a single move. This rebound comes after nearly two weeks of sustained selling pressure, and it resembles a classic "reset and rebound" setup. This pattern suggests that a period of cooldown has offered patient investors an opportunity to acquire Ethereum at a discounted price, especially as macroeconomic fears begin to subside.

The recent rebound has brought Ethereum close to the key $2.5k resistance level, a zone that has historically been a significant supply area. Ethereum's decline over the past two weeks has been steeper than that of Bitcoin, with Ethereum shedding 26% from its mid-June peak of $2,878, more than double Bitcoin's 10.89% drop. This steep decline has pushed Ethereum's Short-Term Holder (STH) Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) into the capitulation zone, indicating that many short-term holders have begun to unwind their positions.

As Ethereum approaches the $2.5k resistance level, it is entering a high-density cost basis cluster. This zone, which ranges from $2.4k to $2.6k, is where many Ethereum holders originally purchased their supply. If Ethereum can push through this resistance level with strength, it could clear the way for further upside. However, if weak hands step in to exit at breakeven, it could turn into a near-term ceiling.

The upcoming quarter will be a true test of hodler conviction. Despite a solid run through the first half of the year, Ethereum has yet to reclaim the $3k level, a psychological barrier that could push some investors to sell early, especially with lingering macroeconomic risks. The recent $100 million in ETF inflows is encouraging, as it shows fresh capital is still flowing into the market. Additionally, a 9.3% jump in Open Interest and a 61% long bias on Binance ETH perps indicate that the market is leaning bullish.

However, BlackRock's recent $18.4 million sell-off adds a layer of caution. Smart money seems to be dialing back, and unless Ethereum can break through the $2.4k–$2.6k supply wall with strength, the idea of a clean run to $3k in Q3 might be a stretch for now. The line between a relief rally and a breakout is razor-thin, and Ethereum's directional bias heading into Q3 will depend on whether it can sustain its recent rebound and push through key resistance levels.