Ethereum's Price Trajectory Ahead of September 26, 2025: On-Chain Metrics and Macroeconomic Catalysts

Ethereum's price action in late September 2025 has been shaped by a confluence of on-chain dynamics and macroeconomic developments. As the network approaches the critical date of September 26, investors are scrutinizing metrics that suggest both bullish and bearish scenarios. This analysis synthesizes on-chain data, institutional activity, and technical indicators to assess Ethereum's potential trajectory.

On-Chain Metrics: A Tale of Contradictions

Ethereum's on-chain activity in early September 2025 reveals a nuanced picture. The Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio, a key metric for gauging undervaluation or overvaluation, currently stands at 37, significantly below its historical range of 60–110Ethereum’s NVT Ratio Suggests Undervaluation at $4,700^[1]. This divergence historically precedes price rallies, as the NVT ratio tends to normalize during bullish cycles. For context, Ethereum's NVT has rarely dipped below 50 in the past five years, making the current level a compelling anomalyEthereum’s Low NVT Ratio Sparks Undervaluation Debate^[5].

Transaction fees and active addresses further underscore this duality. From September 17 to 23, average fees per transaction fluctuated between $0.000077 and $0.00017, while active sending and receiving addresses tracked price movements closelyEthereum’s NVT Ratio Suggests Undervaluation at $4,700^[1]. These metrics suggest a network adapting to evolving demand, with block production and size metrics (blocks mined rising from 7,165 to 7,168 and average block size increasing to 127,193 bytes) indicating improved scalabilityEthereum’s NVT Ratio Suggests Undervaluation at $4,700^[1].

Whale activity, however, introduces uncertainty. While some whales, including Grayscale, liquidated positions in late September, others accumulated over $862 million worth of ETH from exchanges like KrakenEthereum’s NVT Ratio Suggests Undervaluation at $4,700^[1]. This duality—profit-taking versus strategic accumulation—reflects a market balancing short-term volatility with long-term conviction.

Macroeconomic Catalysts: Institutional Confidence and Upcoming Upgrades

The macroeconomic landscape for Ethereum remains favorable. Institutional adoption has surged, with $30.17 billion in Ethereum ETF assets under management, driven by firms like Fidelity and BlackRockEthereum’s NVT Ratio Suggests Undervaluation at $4,700^[1]. This influx of capital signals growing institutional trust in Ethereum's utility as a store of value and medium of exchange.

A critical catalyst on the horizon is the Fusaka upgrade, scheduled for December 2025. Analysts anticipate this upgrade will enhance Ethereum's scalability and transaction efficiency, potentially unlocking new use cases and driving demandEthereum’s Resilient Surge: Market Analysis and Forecast for ...^[2]. Such upgrades have historically acted as price catalysts, with the London and Shanghai upgrades in 2022 and 2023 serving as precedents for post-upgrade rallies.

Structural supply constraints also bolster the bullish case. Despite rising Binance reserves and exchange outflows, Ethereum's issuance rate remains below 1%, creating a deflationary tailwindEthereum Price Prediction September 2025: How High Could^[3]. This dynamic, combined with treasury accumulation by institutions, suggests a tightening supply-demand balance.

Technical Indicators: Caution Amid Consolidation

Ethereum's price has consolidated near $4,533, with key resistance at $4,650 and support at $4,500Ethereum’s Resilient Surge: Market Analysis and Forecast for ...^[2]. Technical indicators like the RSI and MACD suggest diminishing bullish momentum, with the RSI approaching overbought territory and the MACD histogram contractingEthereum’s Resilient Surge: Market Analysis and Forecast for ...^[2]. These signals caution against aggressive long positions in the near term.

However, long-term holder NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is near three-month highs, indicating that HODLers are positioned to profit from a potential reboundWhat to Expect from Ethereum Price in September 2025^[4]. Historical data shows that similar NUPL levels have preceded corrections of 10% or more, but also set the stage for subsequent rallies.

Whale Behavior: A Mixed Signal

Whale activity in September has been a double-edged sword. While some whales offloaded ETH amid the price dip below $4,000, others, including a new whale with a $100 million purchase, signaled confidence in Ethereum's fundamentalsEthereum’s Resilient Surge: Market Analysis and Forecast for ...^[2]. This accumulation, coupled with Bitmine's additional buys, suggests that institutional players view the current price as a buying opportunityEthereum’s Resilient Surge: Market Analysis and Forecast for ...^[2].

Binance's exchange flows—withdrawals exceeding 8 million ETH and deposits reaching 4 million ETH—highlight cautious positioning among large investorsEthereum’s NVT Ratio Suggests Undervaluation at $4,700^[1]. Such movements often precede market inflection points, either through capitulation or accumulation.

Conclusion: A Bullish Case with Caveats

Ethereum's on-chain metrics and macroeconomic catalysts present a compelling case for a bullish bias ahead of September 26. The undervalued NVT ratio, institutional ETF inflows, and upcoming Fusaka upgrade all support a potential move toward $5,500 by mid-October, contingent on sustaining above $4,800Ethereum’s Resilient Surge: Market Analysis and Forecast for ...^[2]. However, technical indicators and whale-driven volatility necessitate caution. Investors should monitor key resistance levels and on-chain sentiment for signs of a breakout or breakdown.