Ethereum Price Could Surge Toward $4,000 as Futures and Spot Markets Signal Rebuilding Exposure

Ethereum's (ETH) recent price recovery has been fueled by renewed buying in the spot market and a healthier use of futures leverage, according to on-chain data. These dynamics may indicate a setup for a potential move toward $4,000, despite ETH still trading below its October 2025 peak.

Traders have added exposure to Ether futures while the price remains below its previous high, with open interest rebounding toward pre-Q4 2025 levels. Meanwhile, Ether's estimated leverage ratio has declined from 0.79 on Jan. 2 to 0.67 by Jan. 11, suggesting a more balanced risk profile.

The spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has increased with the rally, reflecting net buying pressure in the spot market rather than the futures segment. This is often seen as a more durable foundation for price moves.

What's Driving the Rebuilding of ETH Exposure?

Ether's futures and spot markets are showing divergent signals. While the price remains down roughly 27% from its October 2025 level, the open interest has rebounded. This suggests that traders are accumulating positions ahead of potential price discovery.

BitMine has also contributed to the bullish thesis by staking 110,000 ETH worth $340 million on Jan. 12, raising its three-week total to $3.7 billion. This long-term commitment adds to market confidence and could support a higher ETH price.

How Are Staking Rewards and ETFs Affecting ETH Demand?

Grayscale's ETHE has become the first U.S. Ethereum ETF to distribute staking rewards, paying out $0.083 per share to investors. This development has set a precedent for other ETFs, potentially increasing institutional demand for ETH.

The expected passage of the CLARITY Act in 2026 could further boost demand for spot ETH ETFs that offer staking rewards. More institutional participation could reduce circulating supply and increase ETH's value.

Morgan Stanley recently filed for a spot Ethereum ETF, designed to pass staking rewards directly to investors. The structure allows institutions to hold and earn yield from ETH without managing the technical complexities of staking.

What Are Analysts Watching for in Early 2026?

Technical indicators suggest a potential breakout for ETH. The current price is testing key resistance levels, with the nearest at $3,126.35 and a longer-term target near $3,440.25.

The RSI remains in neutral territory, and the MACD histogram shows bullish momentum. However, a divergence between price and MACD could signal a weakening trend.

The Ethereum network is also preparing for major upgrades in 2026, including Glamsterdam and Hegota. These upgrades aim to improve fairness, reduce storage requirements, and enhance scalability. Historically, ETH tends to rise around such events.

Market structure analysis indicates that ETH is consolidating after a sharp pullback in late 2025. The risk/reward profile remains balanced, with potential upside above $3,286 and a downside risk if the price breaks below key support levels.

Institutional buying, particularly from firms like BitMine and through ETF inflows, has helped ETH recover from a 38% drawdown in Q4 2025. These factors, combined with a favorable macroeconomic environment and the potential for more regulatory clarity, suggest a stronger case for a $4,000 target.