Ethereum Price Forecast: Derivatives Traders Turn Bullish, But Retail and US Selling Pressure Offset Momentum

Ethereum (ETH) traded at $3,220 as of 2026-01-12, showing a slight rise on the daily chart but facing resistance at key technical levels. The price recently flipped the 50-day EMA, signaling a potential shift in sentiment, but remains capped by the 200-day EMA at $3,339. Analysts suggest the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 53 indicates a slight negative divergence, and a drop below the 50 midline could trigger a bearish correction.

Technical indicators remain mixed, with the MACD holding a buy signal since December 21. A close above the 100-day EMA at $3,287 could confirm a short-term bullish outlook. However, Ethereum remains capped by the 200-day EMA, which has historically been a significant hurdle for bulls. A breakout above $3,300 would be necessary to aim for the $3,500 level.

Retail demand for Ethereum has declined, as reflected in the falling Open Interest (OI) for Ethereum futures, which dropped to $39.72 billion on Monday. This trend has been ongoing since the beginning of the year, with OI averaging $41.89 billion on January 3.

Why the Move Happened

Derivatives traders have grown more bullish, with Ethereum treasury firm BitMine Immersion accumulating 32,977 ETH over the past week, pushing its total holdings to 4.14 million ETH. The firm has positioned itself as a major ETH buyer, staking 659,219 ETH across multiple staking providers.

Meanwhile, the broader macroeconomic environment remains challenging, with the recent criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell creating uncertainty across financial markets. The investigation raised concerns about central bank independence and triggered a broader sell-off in equities and a rally in safe-haven assets.

How Markets Responded

The US dollar weakened broadly, and gold and other safe-haven assets gained traction, with investors seeking stability. Ethereum, in contrast, showed mixed performance, with some traders treating it as a safe haven during the broader market turbulence.

Ethereum spot ETFs, however, remain a bright spot. The ETFs posted $174 million in net inflows on their first trading day of 2026, according to SoSoValue data. This contrasts with outflows in late 2025 amid broader market corrections.

What Analysts Are Watching

Investors are closely monitoring the ETH/USDT daily chart, particularly the 200-day EMA and RSI levels. A sustained daily close above the 200-EMA would confirm a bullish reversal and set the stage for a potential $3,900 target.

The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) also shows retail-led buying pressure, but whale activity has been negative, with large wallets reducing exposure. This divergence highlights the challenge in predicting the next directional move.

On-chain data from Nansen also indicates a mixed picture. While whales have accumulated $16.5 million in ETH, smart money traders have sold $7.13 million in spot ETH over the past week. This suggests that while retail and institutional buyers are accumulating, larger market participants remain cautious.

Ethereum's future will depend on a combination of technical signals, on-chain activity, and macroeconomic developments. A clear MACD buy signal and a bullish RSI crossover would be key triggers for a sustained upward move. Until then, the altcoin remains in consolidation mode, with both bullish and bearish forces in play.