Ethereum's Price Flow: The Bullish Thesis vs. Current Bearish Reality

Analyst Leshka maintains a starkly bullish long-term view, predicting Ethereum could 3x–4x in the next six months. This explosive scenario is not a near-term bounce but a multi-year recovery path contingent on the current market phase exhausting itself. The core thesis hinges on two technical signals: a fractal pattern mirroring a prior massive cycle move and an emerging supply-squeeze dynamic.

The fractal argument points to a historical parallel where ETH surged from $56 to $1,151, suggesting a similar magnitude of upside is structurally possible. More immediately, Leshka cites a brewing supply squeeze on centralized exchanges as a catalyst. This implies that as exchange reserves deplete, the available supply for selling diminishes, potentially fueling a sharp price acceleration when demand returns.

The critical condition is that this bullish thesis only activates once the current de-risking phase and steep drawdown are fully exhausted. For now, the market structure remains firmly bearish, with negative flows and weak momentum making a swift return to prior highs unlikely. The 3x-4x prediction is a forward-looking setup, not a current reality.

Current Bearish Flow Metrics: Capital Outflows and Weak Momentum

The market's current structure is defined by sustained selling pressure, directly contradicting the bullish thesis. Ethereum trades near $2,111, a level where daily momentum indicators confirm a dominant downtrend. The Daily CMF staying negative implies capital is still flowing out on balance, while the DMI (trend strength with -DI > +DI) shows the downtrend remains firmly in control. This setup suggests the recent bounce toward $2,300 is merely corrective, not a reversal.

Investor positioning has shifted decisively bearish. The weighted funding rate dropped to its October lows, turning negative. This signals that traders betting on price declines are paying those who are long, a clear bearish sentiment indicator in the derivatives market. Combined with the technical structure, this points to a market where the majority of participants are positioned for further downside.

Institutional flows have also flipped from support to headwind. Spot Ethereum ETFs have seen four consecutive months of net outflows, with American investors selling funds worth $149 million this year. This is a critical shift, as these vehicles have previously acted as a floor for price. Now, they are contributing to the selling pressure, removing a key source of demand at a time when on-chain supply dynamics are not yet providing a counterbalance.

Key Flow Thresholds: The Catalysts That Will Decide the Thesis

The battle between the bullish thesis and bearish reality will be decided by specific price levels and a shift in market flows. The immediate technical setup is clear: Ethereum must hold its ground at a critical support level to even consider a reversal.

The first key threshold is a weekly close above $2,130. This level sits just above the recent low and is the signal that the downtrend has stalled. A break above it would point to a potential reversal toward the next major target of $3,000. However, the market's immediate support is far lower. A break below $1,768 would invalidate any near-term bullish outlook, confirming the downtrend is intact and opening the path to further weakness.

The flow metrics must confirm any price move. The negative positioning is a major headwind. The weighted funding rate dropped to its October lows, turning negative and signaling traders are betting on further declines. For the bullish thesis to gain traction, this must shift to positive, indicating a change in sentiment and a willingness to pay for long exposure. Similarly, institutional flows have turned negative, with spot Ethereum ETFs seeing four consecutive months of net outflows. A reversal in these flows, with ETFs showing net inflows again, would be a crucial signal that capital is returning to the asset. Until both the price and the flow data align, the bearish structure remains in control.