Ethereum Poised for 25% Surge to $3,000 by Q3 2025 as Gold Weakens

Ethereum [ETH] is poised for a potential surge in the second half of 2025, driven by a shift in macroeconomic conditions. Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe predicts that Ethereum could reach $3,000 in the third quarter of 2025. This forecast is based on the weakening of gold prices, which have historically indicated a risk-off market sentiment. Gold topped $3,500 in the second quarter, but as it drops towards a range-low of $3,200, risk-on markets could see renewed interest.

Van de Poppe's analysis suggests that the decline in gold prices signals a potential peak for the next 6-12 months, indicating a favorable environment for risk-on assets like Ethereum. This shift in market sentiment could be further bolstered by a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the third quarter. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent statements hinted that a July inflation print could influence the regulator's decision on interest rates. Following Powell's remarks, the odds of a July rate cut surged to 18%, although market confidence has since shifted towards a September rate cut, with over 70% odds.

A potential Fed rate cut in the third quarter could further fuel the risk-on sentiment, supporting van de Poppe's $3,000 price target for Ethereum. However, despite the bullish outlook for the third quarter, the overall option market sentiment remains neutral to negative, as indicated by the 25 Delta Risk Reversals (25RR). The risk reversal for July is negative, while August and September show neutral to slightly positive sentiment, implying a cautious market approach into the summer.

In the short term, Ethereum faces on-chain resistance around the $2,400-$2,600 price range. A significant amount of supply was purchased at this level, which could act as selling pressure if holders decide to cut their losses. Overall, the shifting macroeconomic environment could favor bulls in the third quarter, but the typical summer lull may delay the anticipated rally for Ethereum, as reflected in the options market sentiment.