Ethereum Plummets 38% in Q1 2025, Worst Since 2018

Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, are on track to experience their worst quarterly performance in years. Ethereum, in particular, has had a challenging start to the year, with its price dropping by 37.98% in the first quarter of 2025. This decline is the worst for Ethereum since the first quarter of 2018, when it plummeted by 46.61%. The cryptocurrency is currently trading just above the crucial support level of $2,000, reflecting a year-to-date decline of 43%. This performance is in stark contrast to Bitcoin and XRP, which have seen gains of 23% and 279%, respectively, during the same period.

Market expert Lark Davis highlighted the dramatic downturn in Ethereum’s price, noting a 38% drop in the first quarter of this year. This figure is alarmingly close to Ethereum's worst quarterly performance of 46% recorded during the first quarter of 2018. Following that troubling quarter in 2018, Ethereum saw a brief recovery of 15% in the second quarter, only to face more than 40% declines in the subsequent quarters. This pattern has raised concerns among current investors that a similar downturn could occur in this cycle.

Despite these discouraging figures, Davis posed an interesting question regarding the potential for an “explosive” second quarter for Ethereum. Historically, since 2016, ETH has averaged a remarkable 66% surge during this period. If this trend continues and the Ethereum price were to achieve a 60% increase in the coming months, its price could climb to $3,200 per token—levels not seen since early February of this year.

While short-term challenges remain, many analysts retain a long-term bullish outlook for Ethereum. Crypto analyst Merlijn drew parallels between the current market conditions and Bitcoin’s past performance, suggesting that Ethereum is poised for a similar trajectory. The analyst noted, “Accumulation, breakout, and V-shape recovery loading,” implying that a new bull run could be on the horizon for ETH, with forecasts suggesting it could reach up to $24,000 during this cycle—a major 1,100% increase.

However, the path to recovery is not without its hurdles. Expert Ali Martinez recently highlighted key resistance levels that Ethereum must overcome for a sustainable rebound in the short-term. Martinez noted that ETH’s price has reclaimed its realized price of $2,040, but the next significant challenge lies at the $2,300 mark, where strong resistance has been observed for the leading altcoin. Despite a recent recovery that saw a 10% spike in the past two weeks, Ethereum still faces notable monthly losses, down nearly 25% following a broader market correction.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, is also facing a challenging quarter. Market data shows that Bitcoin has seen its worst first-quarter performance since 2018, with a 6.77% decline in the first quarter of 2025. This breaks a six-year streak of positive quarterly performances for the leading cryptocurrency. Despite this, many analysts predict that the second quarter could bring a vertical swing up for Bitcoin, similar to the historical trends observed in previous years.

Swyftx Chief Analyst Pav Hundal stated that it is unlikely to see a "vertical rally" in the six days left before the end of the first quarter of 2025. Hundal stated that the crypto market will have "some blind flying" until mid-April, by which time the market should have a clearer idea of U.S. President Trump's tariff plans. "Economic data shows a strong global economic condition," he added.