Ethereum's Path to $4,100: Technical and On-Chain Signals Suggest a Post-Pullback Bull Case

Ethereum's price trajectory in late 2025 has sparked renewed optimism among analysts, with technical and on-chain signals converging to support a bullish case for a potential ascent to $4,100. While the asset remains in a consolidation phase, key chart patterns and institutional activity suggest that a post-pullback rally could materialize, particularly if bulls reclaim critical psychological and structural levels.

Technical Analysis: Chart Patterns and Structural Dynamics

Ethereum's 4-hour chart has formed a Price Action Symmetric Triangle and a Falling Wedge, both of which are widely regarded as bullish reversal signals. The symmetric triangle, characterized by converging trendlines, indicates a period of consolidation before a breakout. If Ethereum sustains above the $3,040 level, the pattern's measured move suggests a target near $3,500, with further upside potential extending toward $7,000 within a broadening ascending channel.

A separate Falling Wedge pattern, identified by analysts like Daan, reinforces this optimism. A confirmed breakout from this formation could propel ETH toward $4,000–$4,100, a range that aligns with Fibonacci extension levels and historical resistance. Additionally, a Cup-and-Handle pattern-confirmed by expanding volume-projects a measured move of approximately $4,010, further validating the $4,100 level as a key target.

However, Ethereum remains below its 50-period and 200-period simple moving averages ($2,947.08 and $3,012.68, respectively), which create a bearish bias in the short term. Key resistance levels at $2,950–$2,975, $3,000 (a psychological barrier), and $3,200 must be cleared to flip the trend. On the downside, support zones at $2,900–$2,920 and $2,800–$2,850 are critical for maintaining a bullish bias. Momentum indicators like Williams %R (-58.16) remain indecisive, suggesting neither buyers nor sellers have strong conviction.

Elliott Wave theory adds another layer of analysis. A pivotal level at $3,140 has emerged as a potential catalyst for a bullish extension toward $3,500. A successful breakout here could trigger a wave structure that aligns with the $4,100 target. Conversely, failure to hold above this level risks a deeper correction to $2,700–$2,750.

On-Chain Activity: Institutional Accumulation and Network Valuation

Institutional on-chain activity in December 2025 underscores growing confidence in Ethereum's long-term prospects. Stablecoin transfer volume on the Ethereum network surged to $8 trillion in Q4 2025, nearly double the previous quarter's figure, while stablecoin issuance increased by 43% annually to $181 billion. This surge reflects heightened demand for Ethereum-based liquidity, particularly in decentralized finance (DeFi) and cross-border transactions.

Large whale transactions further highlight institutional accumulation. Trend Research, a prominent institutional investor, acquired 46,000 ETH, positioning itself as the third-largest Ethereum holder. Such movements signal strategic long-term positioning, as institutional actors often prioritize Ethereum's role as a settlement layer and its upcoming upgrades (e.g., sharding and EIP-4844).

Despite weekly net outflows of $161 million from Ethereum ETFs, the broader trend shows $12.7 billion in inflows for 2025-a 138% year-over-year increase. This suggests that while short-term holders may be cautious, long-term investors remain committed. The Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio, currently at 1,041, indicates that Ethereum's network is overvalued relative to on-chain transaction activity. However, historical NVT cycles suggest that such overvaluation often precedes significant price appreciation, particularly in a bullish macroeconomic environment.

Synthesis: A Post-Pullback Bull Case

The convergence of technical and on-chain signals paints a compelling case for Ethereum's potential to reach $4,100. On the technical front, the falling wedge and cup-and-handle patterns, combined with Fibonacci levels, provide a structural roadmap for a bullish breakout. Meanwhile, institutional accumulation and surging stablecoin activity highlight Ethereum's growing utility and adoption.

However, risks remain. A breakdown below $3,078 (the 20-day SMA) could trigger a bearish scenario, testing support at $2,836 and $2,623. Investors must also monitor short-term holders, who could exacerbate volatility if Ethereum fails to sustain above $3,140.

For now, the data suggests that Ethereum is in a transitional phase-balancing consolidation with the potential for a breakout. If bulls can reclaim $3,000 and sustain momentum above $3,140, the path to $4,100 becomes increasingly viable.