Ethereum's November 2025 Price Outlook: Is a Rebound Imminent?

Ethereum's price action in November 2025 has been a rollercoaster, oscillating between bearish corrections and cautious optimism. As the cryptocurrency battles below the $4,000 psychological threshold, investors are scrutinizing on-chain sentiment and whale behavior for clues about a potential reversal. With key technical indicators, institutional reallocations, and upcoming protocol upgrades in play, the question remains: Is Ethereum poised for a rebound, or is the bearish trend here to stay?

On-Chain Sentiment: Mixed Signals Amid Volatility

Ethereum's on-chain metrics in November 2025 paint a nuanced picture. The TD Sequential indicator, a popular tool for identifying overbought or oversold conditions, issued a sell signal with a "9" reading in late October, suggesting a short-term correction after ETH rejected the $4,085 resistance level, according to a Coinotag report. That analysis was confirmed by bearish candlestick patterns and a drop below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $3,921. However, recent data from Glassnode and Santiment reveals a counter-narrative: long-term holders (LTHs) are accumulating. Exchange reserves have plummeted to 15.9 million ETH-a 40% decline from 27 million in 2023-indicating reduced selling pressure and growing confidence in Ethereum's long-term value, as the Coinotag report also notes.

Meanwhile, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) bands, which measure the ratio of market value to realized value, have confirmed support at $3,900, according to a Coinotag recovery report. This suggests that Ethereum's floor strength remains intact, with a 15% rebound from two-month lows reinforcing the idea that the market is consolidating rather than collapsing. That recovery piece also highlights analysts' predictions of a potential push toward $4,500 if key supports like $3,550 hold.

Whale Behavior: Accumulation Amid Institutional Reallocation

Whale activity has been a critical barometer of Ethereum's health. In early October, wallets holding 100–10,000 ETH sold 1.36 million ETH, triggering a sharp selloff, as reported in a Coinotag whales report. That same analysis later noted these whales added back 218,470 ETH in the week following the October 5–16 distribution event, signaling a reversal in sentiment. This accumulation aligns with broader institutional trends.

The most significant development in November 2025 is the restructuring of BUIDL, the largest tokenized real-world asset (RWA) fund. Managed by BlackRock and Securitize, BUIDL reduced its Ethereum exposure by nearly 60%, from $2.4 billion to $990 million, while increasing allocations to Avalanche, Aptos, and Polygon, according to a Crypto Economy report. This liquidity redistribution-maintaining the fund's total value at $2.8 billion-reflects a strategic shift toward multi-chain diversification rather than a capital withdrawal. While this may reduce Ethereum's demand in the short term, it also underscores the growing maturity of the tokenized RWA market, with Ethereum still holding 53% of the sector's total value, as the Crypto Economy report explains.

The Fusaka Upgrade: A Catalyst for Scalability

Ethereum's technical roadmap offers another layer of optimism. Developers have locked in December 3, 2025, as the mainnet launch date for the Fusaka upgrade, which includes 12 Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs) aimed at enhancing scalability and security, according to an FXStreet report. Notably, EIP-7594 (PeerDAS) is expected to streamline Layer 2 transaction validation, reducing gas fees and improving network efficiency-details discussed in the FXStreet piece. These upgrades could act as a tailwind for Ethereum's price, particularly if they attract renewed developer and institutional interest.

Market Conditions: ETF Outflows and Macro Uncertainty

Despite these positive signals, Ethereum faces headwinds. ETF outflows from Ether-based funds like Fidelity's FETH and Grayscale's ETHE have totaled $81 million in November 2025, according to a CryptoDaily report. This, combined with macroeconomic uncertainty-fueled by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish comments-has pushed ETH below $4,000. However, Santiment analytics note that investor patience remains intact, with long-term holder dominance and stable DeFi integrations suggesting the current decline is a temporary rotation rather than a structural reversal, as observed in a Coinotag analysis.

Is a Rebound Imminent?

The data points to a potential rebound, but with caveats. If Ethereum holds the $3,600 support level, it could test the $3,815 threshold, with a close above $4,000 potentially targeting $4,500, a scenario explored in a Coinotag on-chain piece. Whale accumulation and the Fusaka upgrade provide bullish catalysts, while BUIDL's multi-chain strategy introduces uncertainty about Ethereum's demand. Investors should monitor key on-chain metrics, including order book depth and volume spikes, for confirmation of a reversal.

In the short term, Ethereum's path remains fraught with volatility. However, the combination of resilient on-chain fundamentals, whale accumulation, and protocol upgrades suggests that the bearish trend may not be terminal. As the Fusaka upgrade approaches, the market could see a re-rating of Ethereum's value proposition-especially if macroeconomic conditions stabilize and institutional demand rebounds.