Ethereum News Today: Whales and Institutions Fuel Ethereum's Tug-of-War at Critical $4,620 Threshold

Ethereum's price has remained relatively stagnant in recent weeks, with a 1.3% weekly gain to $4,430 and a 2.7% monthly rise. However, on-chain data reveals significant accumulation by large holders, or "whales," who added 870,000 ETH in a 24-hour period, equivalent to approximately $4 billion at current prices. This marks one of the largest single-day inflows by whales in recent weeks, signaling potential positioning for a breakout rather than profit-taking after a rally [1]. Concurrently, short-term holder activity has surged, with Glassnode's HODL Waves data showing the 24-hour cohort expanding from 0.34% to 0.87% and the 1–3 month group rising to 12.36% week-on-week. Such movements often indicate re-entry by traders during low-volatility periods, adding liquidity and momentum [1].

Technical analysis aligns with the on-chain optimism. Ethereum's price is trading within an ascending triangle pattern, oscillating between key Fibonacci levels of $4,400 and $4,620. This structure, characterized by higher lows against a flat resistance line, typically precedes a breakout. Additionally, a hidden bullish divergence emerged on the daily chart between August 25 and October 9, where prices formed higher lows while the RSI (Relative Strength Index) created lower lows. This divergence, common during corrections in uptrends, suggests weakening selling pressure and a potential continuation of the upward trajectory [1]. Analysts note that a decisive close above $4,620 could trigger a rally toward $4,870 and $5,130, while a breakdown below $4,400 risks a pullback to $4,240 or $4,070 [1].

Whale accumulation has been mirrored by institutional inflows, with Ethereum ETFs recording $1.3 billion in weekly inflows. This contrasts with prior outflows and underscores growing institutional confidence. Meanwhile, a major Ethereum whale transferred 26,029 ETH ($118 million) from Kraken and 620 BTC ($76 million) from Binance into self-custody, signaling strategic positioning for further price gains [2]. Exchange balances for both Bitcoin and Ethereum have fallen to multi-year lows, with Bitcoin's 30-day withdrawals reaching 170,000 BTC, a dynamic historically linked to sharp price increases [2].

The market's technical outlook remains cautiously bullish. Ethereum's current consolidation above $4,400 is supported by a positive trend line and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. Momentum indicators, including the MACD and RSI, suggest strengthening buying pressure, with the RSI crossing above the neutral 50 level. If Ethereum sustains above $4,620, analysts project a path toward $5,000, with intermediate targets at $4,720 and $4,800. However, sustained weakness below $4,400 could invalidate the short-term bullish case [2].

Derivatives markets reflect mixed sentiment. Weekly trading volume for Ethereum derivatives fell 17.12% to $89.17 billion, while open interest decreased slightly. Options activity, however, shows prudent hedging, with open interest rising 1.30% to $17.29 billion. The OI Weighted ratio at 0.0042% indicates minimal position adjustments, suggesting speculative investors are reducing exposure but maintaining cautious bets [3].

Ethereum's on-chain and technical indicators collectively highlight a critical juncture. Whale accumulation, institutional inflows, and bullish chart patterns point to a potential breakout above $4,620, which could catalyze a new upward leg. Conversely, failure to hold this level risks a retest of key support zones. The market's focus remains on whether sustained buying pressure from whales and institutions can drive Ethereum beyond its current consolidation phase.

Source: [1] Ethereum Whales Pin Nearly $4 Billion on Breakout Hopes, but $4,620 Is the Key (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ethereum-whales-pin-nearly-4-140000161.html)

[2] Ethereum Eyes $5,000 Breakthrough as Whales Accumulate $118M (https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/10/06/ethereum-eyes-5000-breakthrough-as-whales-accumulate-118m-and-bitcoin-tests-new-ath/)

[3] Ethereum Set for Explosive Gains, $4,620 Could Be Next (https://www.tronweekly.com/ethereum-set-for-explosive-gains-4620-could-be/)