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Ethereum (ETH) has dropped to a two-week low amid concerns about a $4 billion supply overhang, sparking questions about its ability to rebound toward $5,000. The recent price correction comes after a short-lived rally that pushed ETH to a near-record high in mid-August. Technical indicators and major market participants suggest a potential bounce could be forming, though liquidity risks remain high. Large traders are increasingly positioning for a rebound, while outflows from
ETFs and growing unstaking activity highlight broader market pressures.Key among the bullish signals is a large Ethereum whale who has opened a $16.35 million long position with 25x leverage, betting on ETH's potential to stabilize and rise. The position, initiated at $4,229.83 per ETH, is already in slight profit as ETH trades just above $4,240. This trade is strategically placed near a cluster of short liquidations between $4,300 and $4,360, where market makers are likely to push the price as they target stop-loss orders. If ETH reaches $4,336, the whale's unrealized profit could reach nearly $450,000. However, a drop to $4,046 would lead to the position's liquidation [1].
Technical analysis also supports a potential rebound. ETH is currently holding above its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), a critical support level that has defined the uptrend since July. This level coincides with the lower boundary of a falling wedge pattern on the daily chart—a classic bullish reversal formation. If the wedge breaks higher, ETH could target $4,750, which is roughly 13% above current levels. A close below $4,140 would invalidate the setup [1].
On the broader market, Ethereum ETFs have experienced significant outflows, with $197 million in redemptions reported on Monday—the second-highest daily figure ever recorded. This sell-off coincides with a record backlog of unstaking ETH, where $3.9 billion worth of withdrawals are pending. BRN Research’s Timothy Misir warns these factors are negatively impacting near-term sentiment. He identifies $4,400 as a crucial support level for ETH, below which the price could face renewed downward pressure [3].
Despite the sell-off, Ethereum’s institutional backers remain optimistic about its long-term role in the financial system. At the NextFin NYC event, part of Ethereum NYC 2025, advocates emphasized Ethereum’s potential as the backbone of a future monetary system powered by smart contracts. Tom Lee of
Technologies, which holds over $6 billion in ETH, argued that Ethereum is not merely a speculative asset but a foundational platform for the convergence of Wall Street and artificial intelligence [2].While Ethereum faces headwinds from faster, cheaper competitors like
and a shortage of consistent buyers, proponents like Lee and co-founder Joe Lubin see corporate treasury programs as a structural solution. By locking away ETH supply, these programs aim to stabilize demand and provide a stronger floor for the token’s price. The debate over Ethereum’s future underscores the broader competition for dominance in the evolving blockchain and digital asset markets [2].Source:
[1] Ethereum whale opens $16.
long as ETH price eyes bounce (https://cointelegraph.com/news/ethereum-whale-opens-16-3m-long-as-eth-price-eyes-bounce)[2] Ethereum's Big Backers Unleash Billions to Push Into Wall Street (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ethereum-big-backers-unleash-billions-130704758.html)
[3] Ethereum ETFs Lose $197 Million—Even Worse Than
(https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ethereum-etfs-lose-197-million-152531921.html)
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