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Derivatives market activity is revealing a shift in sentiment among traders, with increasing hedging activity against potential price declines in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Option data from platforms like Derive shows a strong preference for put options on both assets, signaling heightened bearish expectations ahead of the August 29 expiration date. For Bitcoin, open interest in put options expiring on that date is nearly five times higher than in call options, with a significant portion concentrated at the $95,000, $80,000, and $100,000 strike prices. Derive’s Head of Research, Sean Dawson, noted that this positioning reflects a wide range of expectations, from mild corrections to deeper price declines [1].
Ethereum’s hedging activity is similarly bearish, though on a smaller scale. Put options expiring on August 29 are more than 10% higher in volume than call options, with the most concentrated activity at $3,200, $3,000, and $2,200 strike prices. Dawson described this as a sign of market participants preparing for multiple scenarios, including a potential pullback to levels significantly below the current price. The focus on these key levels suggests that traders are particularly concerned about Ethereum failing to hold above $3,000, a threshold that has been closely watched in recent weeks [1].
The bearish positioning in options is mirrored in other derivatives markets. On Polymarket, the probability assigned to Bitcoin falling below $100,000 by the end of 2025 has risen to 49%, up two percentage points in a single day. This increase indicates growing anticipation of a potential decline, even as the spot price remains above the $115,000 level. The divergence between spot and derivatives data highlights the nuanced nature of market sentiment, where traders are actively managing long-term risk while the current price trend remains bullish [2].
Traders are also employing hedging strategies that go beyond traditional options. In liquid staking token strategies, Ethereum exposure is being managed through derivative instruments, reflecting a broader trend toward sophisticated risk management in the crypto space. These strategies are particularly relevant in a market environment marked by regulatory uncertainty and macroeconomic pressures. While the increased use of derivatives does not necessarily signal an imminent price collapse, it does indicate a shift toward caution among both institutional and retail investors [3].
The growing reliance on derivatives as a risk mitigation tool suggests that the cryptocurrency market is evolving. Traders are no longer solely focused on short-term price movements but are increasingly preparing for a range of possible outcomes. As markets become more complex and interconnected, the role of options and other derivatives in shaping investor behavior is likely to grow, offering a clearer picture of market expectations than spot prices alone.
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