Ethereum News Today: Institutions Stockpile ETH as Fed's QT Shift Ignites Crypto Optimism

Ethereum's open interest (OI) surged 7.4% last week, signaling a strong setup with a 75% historical success rate for bullish moves, according to on-chain analysts. The cryptocurrency has rebounded 11% from a November 22 low below $3,000, reclaiming key support at $2,800 amid rising institutional demand and shifting macroeconomic conditions. Capriole Investments reported Ethereum's apparent demand, measuring the gap between new issuance and inactive supply, hit 90,995 ETH on Nov. 26, up from 37,990 ETH a week earlier, a 26-month high. This metric, which historically preceded a 165% rally in early 2024, suggests aggressive accumulation on dips and points to potential recovery toward $3,600.

The Federal Reserve's scheduled end of quantitative tightening (QT) on Dec. 1 is also fueling optimism. Analysts note that past QT halts have historically boosted liquidity into crypto markets, creating tailwinds for ETH. Concurrently, spot Ethereum ETF inflows reversed course, adding $230.9 million over three consecutive days after shedding $1.28 billion during a prior slump. These flows, combined with BitMine Immersion's recent purchase, of 69,822 ETH—bringing its holdings to 3.63 million, or 3% of total supply—are seen as critical support for the price structure.

Technical indicators reinforce the bullish case. Ethereum is currently trading near $2,830, oscillating between $2,760 and $2,890 over the past 24 hours. A key resistance cluster forms at $2,870–$2,960, while deeper support lies at $2,720 and $2,400–$2,500 according to technical analysis. Analysts highlight the $2,830–$2,835 range as a critical leverage point: sustained trading above this level could trigger a rebound as whales lock in profits, while a break below $2,770 may reignite selling pressure.

The market's volatility is further amplified by leverage-driven rallies. CryptoQuant data shows the Leverage-Driven Pump indicator flashing six times this month, with four instances retracing partially or fully. While this suggests short-term instability, institutional accumulation and declining exchange-held ETH balances—indicating long-term staking and holding behavior—provide a structural floor according to market analysis.

Long-term forecasts vary widely. A conservative scenario projects ETH reaching $6,500–$8,000 by 2025, while bullish models anticipate $10,000+ by 2030, contingent on sustained upgrades like the December Fusaka network improvement. However, risks remain, including regulatory uncertainty and competition from alternative blockchains.

Upcoming catalysts will test the market's resilience. The Fed's PCE inflation data, December's Ethereum upgrade, and continued ETF inflows are pivotal for determining whether the current rebound evolves into a broader recovery. For now, traders are advised to monitor $2,835 as a critical threshold, with further gains dependent on holding key technical levels and macroeconomic clarity.