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The cryptocurrency market appears to be entering a phase of consolidation, with analysts suggesting that this period could prolong the current bull cycle into early 2026. Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor, has described the current environment as a “waiting room,” where key parts of the crypto ecosystem are poised to launch. This phase, he argues, is being influenced by a global business cycle that is slowing, potentially extending the traditional four-year crypto cycle due to prolonged liquidity conditions. According to Pal, this could lead to a peak in the first or second quarter of 2026. Pal's business cycle score, a macroeconomic model, is being closely watched by investors and analysts as a potential indicator of the market's trajectory [1].
Supporting this view, Enmanuel Cardozo, a market analyst at Brickken, noted that recent pullbacks in the market were not primarily driven by on-chain dynamics but by political tensions involving U.S. President Trump and the Federal Reserve. This suggests that the institutional positioning in major cryptocurrencies like
and remains robust. Additionally, the significant inflow of stablecoins into platforms like Binance, which have now surpassed $1.65 billion, could indicate that institutional investors are preparing for renewed market participation. These inflows are typically seen as a precursor to increased investment activity, as stablecoins are frequently used as a funding tool by traders [1].Pal has also identified potential candidates that may break out of the “waiting room.” He highlighted
(SOL) as the next altcoin likely to gain momentum, citing a bullish ascending triangle pattern on its price chart. This technical formation is commonly seen as a signal for a potential breakout, suggesting that Solana could see a significant price movement. Following Solana, Pal expects (SUI) and (DOGE) to follow suit. The token is in the process of a full port, while smaller altcoins outside the top ten may require more time before they begin to rally [1].Analysts have drawn parallels between the current crypto cycle and the one in 2017, when Bitcoin experienced an explosive rise. Pal noted the similarities in market dynamics and suggested that the current cycle may also result in a significant price surge. This comparison is based on the observation that the current environment mirrors the conditions that led to the 2017 boom, including the role of a weakening U.S. dollar and the potential for institutional capital to drive prices higher [1].
The broader market context is also significant, with Ether (ETH) showing signs of resilience against Bitcoin. Despite some volatility and high leverage levels, the inflow of stablecoins and the withdrawal of Ether from exchanges suggest strong accumulation by investors. This accumulation could indicate that the market is preparing for a new phase of growth, with the key pivot point for Ether currently set at $4,700. If ETH can reclaim and hold this level, it could signal a continuation of the bullish trend, potentially leading to further price increases. However, if it fails to do so, the market may face a deeper correction, which could impact the overall crypto cycle [7].
Source: [1] Crypto "waiting room" ahead of Market Top in Q1 2026 (https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-waiting-room-market-top-q1-2026-raoul-pal) [2] Biggest Bull Run Yet? Expert Says Crypto Cycle Could ... (https://coindoo.com/biggest-bull-run-yet-expert-says-crypto-cycle-could-extend-to-2026/) [7] ETH Rallies But $4.7K Remains Key Pivot Point (https://cointelegraph.com/news/eth-rallies-against-bitcoin-but-dollar4-7k-must-flip-to-support)

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