Ethereum News Today: Inflationary Shift Challenges Ethereum's $2,800–$3,100 Rally Potential Amid TPS Surge

Ethereum (ETH) has shattered its daily transaction throughput (TPS) record, processing 24,192 transactions per second at peak levels, while its network supply has turned modestly inflationary for the first time in months. This development comes as traders and analysts increasingly view the $2,800–$3,100 price range as a critical "discount zone" that could catalyze the next major rally, drawing parallels to historical patterns seen in June 2023.

The surge in TPS, driven largely by Layer 2 (L2) solutions accounting for 95.35% of total network activity, underscores Ethereum's growing role as the backbone of decentralized finance (DeFi) and tokenized assets. Platforms like Arbitrum and Optimism, along with decentralized exchanges such as Perp DEX Lighter, have fueled this traffic spike, reflecting a broader shift toward off-chain scaling. Meanwhile, Ethereum's supply dynamics have shifted: net issuance rose by 18,019 ETH over the past week, pushing the annualized inflation rate to 0.776% as burn activity slowed amid weaker on-chain fees according to analysis.

Technical analysts highlight a recurring three-wave price structure, with Ethereum currently in the second corrective phase. This pattern, observed in 2022, 2023, and 2025, positions the current pullback as a potential launchpad for a third-wave expansion. Merlijn The Trader notes that the $2,800–$3,100 zone aligns with historical support levels where prior corrections stabilized before resuming upward trends. On-chain data corroborates this view, with whale transactions above $1 million remaining steady and exchange net flows turning negative-indicating accumulation rather than panic selling.

Macro pressures persist, however. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and elevated U.S. Treasury yields have dampened risk appetite, contributing to a broader crypto market capitalization drop below $2.38 trillion. Ethereum, trading at $2,850 as of November 24, faces near-term support at $2,870 and $2,720, with a decisive break below $3,000 exposing it to further declines. Yet institutional confidence remains intact: BitMine Immersion, a major Ethereum treasury firm, has accumulated 3.63 million ETH (3% of the total supply), viewing the current dip as an asymmetric opportunity amid a projected "supercycle" for the asset.

The discount zone thesis gains further traction from historical NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) metrics. A similar reset in June 2023-a 20.7% dip to $2,230-preceded a 116% rally over two months. Current NUPL levels suggest a comparable cleanup phase, with a potential target near $2,470 if the pattern repeats. Short-term traders are monitoring the $2,920–$3,150 range for signs of stabilization, while long-term holders remain bullish on Ethereum's fundamentals, including the upcoming Dencun upgrade (EIP-4844) in early 2026, which promises to reduce gas costs and enhance scalability according to market analysis.

Market participants are also eyeing Ethereum's role in institutional adoption. JPMorgan, BlackRock, and HSBC have all deployed Ethereum-based solutions for tokenized assets and blockchain settlement, while real-world asset (RWA) tokenization on the network has surpassed $7.4 billion in value. Despite Bitcoin's recent dominance in ETF inflows, historical trends suggest Ethereum often outperforms BTC during post-deleveraging phases, as seen in June 2023.

For now, the focus remains on macro stability and liquidity conditions. A rebound in Ethereum's price hinges on renewed capital inflows, stabilization of the U.S. dollar (DXY), and resolution of L2 network vulnerabilities. While short-term risks persist, the combination of robust network activity, institutional accumulation, and upcoming upgrades positions Ethereum for a potential breakout in 2026.