Ethereum News Today: Hayes Warns Monad's Tokenomics Are Engineered for Insiders, Not Adoption

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has issued a stark warning that Monad (MON), a recently launched layer-1 blockchain, could plummet by 99% due to its tokenomics structure, which he argues is designed to benefit insiders rather than foster long-term adoption. In a November 2025 interview with Altcoin Daily, Hayes criticized the project's "high fully diluted valuation (FDV), low circulating supply, and hype-based selling pressure," labeling it a "bear chain" primed for a sharp correction after an initial price surge. His remarks come as MON has already dropped 25% from its peak, trading at approximately $0.036 with a market capitalization of $396 million.

Hayes' critique centers on what he describes as a recurring pattern in new blockchain projects: early hype driving rapid price gains, followed by steep declines once insider tokens unlock. "It's built for founders and VCs to dump on retail traders once token hype peaks," he stated, emphasizing that Monad's token model lacks real-world utility and adoption. The project, which raised $225 million from Paradigm and launched its mainnet in late November, has been marketed as a high-performance Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM)-compatible chain, yet Hayes dismissed its potential to rival Ethereum or Solana.

The BitMEX co-founder's bearish stance on Monad aligns with his broader thesis that only a handful of layer-1 blockchains-specifically Ethereum, Solana, Bitcoin, and privacy-focused protocols like Zcash-will endure long-term. He argued that institutions are increasingly favoring Ethereum as the default public blockchain for Web3 adoption, citing its role in stablecoin ecosystems and institutional-grade security. Solana, while capable of competing, faces challenges in sustaining growth without "new tricks," Hayes added. Meanwhile, he dismissed most other layer-1 projects as "zeros," predicting they will collapse in value as markets consolidate.

Hayes' warnings have sparked debate within the crypto community, particularly as Monad's public token sale on Coinbase attracted $269 million from 85,820 global participants, exceeding its allocation. Despite initial optimism, the project's token model-characterized by a low float and large insider holdings-has raised concerns about liquidity risks. "The early gains don't translate into durable value," Hayes noted, reiterating his 99% bearish outlook.

Looking ahead, Hayes anticipates a new phase of crypto growth driven by monetary expansion, particularly in the U.S. and China, rather than Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle. He also highlighted privacy coins like Zcash as potential leaders in the next bull market, citing growing institutional interest in zero-knowledge technologies. For Monad, however, the path to adoption remains uncertain, with Hayes' prediction underscoring the volatile and speculative nature of emerging layer-1 projects in a market increasingly dominated by a few entrenched players.