Ethereum News Today: Hayes: Most L1s a House of Cards, Only Ethereum and Solana Survive

Arthur Hayes, the former BitMEX CEO and prominent crypto commentator, has issued a stark warning that most layer-1 (L1) blockchain projects outside of Ethereum and Solana are likely to collapse in value. Speaking in recent interviews, Hayes argued that the vast majority of new L1s lack the utility, adoption, and structural viability to survive long-term market cycles, a sentiment he has reinforced through specific critiques of projects like Monad and broader observations on the crypto landscape according to reports.

Hayes's comments come amid a surge in speculative activity around new L1s, particularly Monad, which launched its mainnet on November 24. The project's native token, MON, saw a 19% price jump post-airdrop, reaching $0.042. However, Hayes dismissed the rally as a temporary spike driven by hype, not real demand. He criticized Monad's token model, labeling it "insider-driven" with a high fully diluted valuation (FDV) and low circulating supply, which he warned could lead to a 99% crash once early investors unlock their tokens and sell according to data. This aligns with his broader skepticism of high-FDV, low-float projects, which he views as structurally risky for retail investors according to analysis.

The former BitMEX founder also highlighted Ethereum and Solana as the only two L1s with a credible path to sustained relevance. Ethereum's institutional adoption and modular architecture, which relies on Layer 2s for scalability, contrast with Solana's focus on speed and low fees, attracting both retail and institutional users. Hayes emphasized that while Ethereum's ecosystem is fragmented across L2s like Arbitrum and Optimism, Solana's on-chain activity-marked by a 186% year-over-year revenue growth-positions it as a strong contender in 2026 according to financial reports.

Beyond L1s, Hayes expressed optimism about privacy coins, particularly Zcash (ZEC), which he has added as the second-largest holding in his family office, Maelstrom. Grayscale's recent filing to convert its Zcash Trust into an ETF underscores growing institutional interest in privacy-focused assets. Hayes argued that privacy technologies will gain renewed traction as global liquidity expands, driven by monetary policies in the U.S. and China. He dismissed the notion that Bitcoin's halving cycles dictate market trends, instead attributing past bull runs to synchronized credit expansion according to analysis.

Hayes's bearish stance on most L1s reflects a broader industry debate about the sustainability of new blockchain projects. While innovators like Monad aim to disrupt with high-speed execution and Ethereum compatibility, critics argue that real-world adoption and developer traction remain elusive. As the crypto market matures, Hayes predicts a consolidation phase where only a handful of networks-Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Zcash-will dominate.