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Ether continues to outperform
in capital inflows, with key on-chain metrics suggesting that a retest of the $4,000 level is on the horizon. According to recent data from Glassnode, the SOL/ETH Hot Capital Ratio has dropped to a year-to-date low of 0.045, marking a 42% decline since April. This indicates a growing preference among short-term investors for over Solana, despite both assets seeing inflows in July [1].The shift is also reflected in the futures market, where Ether's open interest (OI) recently reached an all-time high of $58 billion. Ethereum's share of total OI across major exchanges has climbed to 34.8%, while Bitcoin's share has fallen to 47.1% from 59.3%. This trend underscores a broader move in speculative capital toward Ethereum. Additionally, the ETH/BTC pair has surged back to multi-month highs, crossing above the 200-day exponential moving average for the first time in over two years, further highlighting Ethereum’s relative strength [1].
Ethereum’s funding rates, a key indicator for futures traders, remain significantly lower than during previous attempts to break through $4,000 in March and December 2024. This is seen as a positive sign for two reasons: first, it suggests that traders are not overly leveraged on the long side, reducing the risk of sudden liquidations, and second, it indicates that the current price movement is being driven more by spot demand than speculative positioning [1].
Institutional buying has also contributed to the bullish momentum. According to Nate Geraci of NovaDius, Ether treasury companies and spot ETFs have each purchased approximately 1.6% of the current ETH supply since early June, reflecting strong institutional interest and accumulation [1].
Although Ethereum has not yet reclaimed the $4,000 resistance level, the price has rebounded nearly 9% after a 9.72% correction in the previous week, retreating to the $3,800 level. Crypto analyst Jelle notes that $4,000 has historically acted as a strong psychological barrier and believes that a successful breakout could mark a turning point, with little likelihood of a return to lower levels in the near future [1].
While investor sentiment remains mixed, with fluctuating levels of fear and greed reported across multiple timeframes, the overall flow of capital continues to favor Ethereum. As the market anticipates the potential for a price retest of $4,000, the coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether this level can be meaningfully challenged and potentially breached.
Source: [1] Ethereum beats Solana in capital inflows: $4K target in sight (https://cointelegraph.com/news/ethereum-beats-solana-in-capital-inflows-4k-target-in-sight)
[2] Ethereum Fear and Greed Index | Multiple Timeframes (https://cfgi.io/ethereum-fear-greed-index/)
[3] Altcoin Watch News (https://cointelegraph.com/tags/altcoin-watch)

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