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Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $125,000 in late October 2025 before experiencing a pullback, while
(ETH) emerged as a focal point for investor optimism amid record global liquidity expansion. Analysts attribute Ethereum's strength to a surge in global M2 money supply, which hit $95.58 trillion, signaling increased capital inflows into high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Ethereum's price, currently at $3,640, is projected to surpass $8,000 by late 2025, driven by technical breakouts and institutional demand[1].The U.S. Federal Reserve's upcoming statements are expected to influence market sentiment, with investors closely monitoring potential policy shifts. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's dominance in the crypto market has declined to 60%, a drop of 8.5% since June 27, as Ethereum gained 77% in the same period. This shift reflects a broader rotation of capital into altcoins, supported by Ethereum's improving fundamentals and the launch of spot ETFs. Ethereum ETF inflows have exceeded Bitcoin's for seven consecutive days, underscoring growing institutional confidence[2].
Global M2 liquidity has historically correlated with crypto bull cycles, with analysts noting Ethereum's lag in tracking these trends. Using the Wyckoff accumulation method, market participants argue that Ethereum should already trade above $8,000 if fully priced for current liquidity levels. The ETH/BTC ratio has risen 40% in a month, further indicating Ethereum's outperformance relative to Bitcoin[1].
The Treasury General Account (TGA), a key indicator of U.S. fiscal liquidity, has drawn attention for its potential impact on crypto markets. A high TGA balance-currently near $850 billion-signals liquidity being withdrawn from private markets, potentially constraining risk assets like
and Ethereum. However, analysts suggest that a slowdown or drawdown in TGA accumulation could ease liquidity pressure, creating conditions for a crypto rally. This dynamic remains a focal point for macro narratives, though its predictive power is debated.Bitcoin's price volatility has also sparked short-squeeze events, with $115 million in liquidations recorded in a single hour in early October. Such squeezes often precede sharp price spikes, as seen in Ethereum's proximity to $4,700-a level with $1.32 billion in short exposure. While bulls target Ethereum breaking $10,000, caution persists due to overleveraged positions and potential profit-taking. The interplay between institutional flows, ETF dynamics, and global liquidity will likely dictate the trajectory of both assets in the coming months.
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