Ethereum News Today: Ethereum Surges 50% on Strong On-Chain Metrics Analysts Target $9000 by 2026

Ethereum (ETH) has surged 50% in two weeks, reigniting speculation about its long-term potential. Analysts are now citing technical and on-chain indicators to justify a potential price target of $9,000 by early 2026, though skepticism remains about whether the data fully supports such a bold projection. The cryptocurrency currently trades at $3,730, 23% below its November 2021 peak, but on-chain metrics suggest a structural shift in demand and supply dynamics.

On-chain fundamentals highlight a tightening supply environment. Approximately 28% of ETH’s total supply is staked, locking over 34 million tokens in long-term commitments and reducing circulating liquidity. Exchange balances have plummeted to 16.2 million ETH—the lowest since 2016—further signaling reduced sell-side pressure. Meanwhile, new buyer inflows have accelerated, with first-time holders increasing their ETH supply by 16% since early July. Glassnode analysts describe this as an early reversal signal, indicating growing participation from retail investors.

Technical models also suggest bullish momentum. An Elliott Wave analysis by XForceGlobal posits that ETH is in the third impulsive wave of a five-wave cycle, a phase historically associated with price acceleration. If macroeconomic conditions remain stable, this pattern could push ETH toward $9,000 by early 2026, according to the analysis. However, the forecast is contingent on unverified assumptions, as the model’s timing has already outpaced earlier predictions.

Network activity reinforces the narrative of sustained demand. Despite repeated block gas limit increases to enhance scalability, Ethereum continues operating near full capacity. Post-upgrade data from July 2025 shows immediate block saturation, a pattern observed after prior adjustments in 2020, 2021, and 2022. While average transaction fees have dropped, gas usage—measuring computational demand—remains robust. The shift in transaction types is notable: non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and decentralized finance (DeFi) activity have waned, while infrastructure protocols, rollups, and stablecoin transfers dominate, reflecting a maturing ecosystem focused on settlement and modular applications.

Market sentiment analysis adds nuance to the price debate. Ethereum’s MVRV Z-score, which compares its market cap to realized value, remains below levels seen during euphoric bull cycles. At 0.47, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator suggests optimism but not exuberance, contrasting with Bitcoin’s 0.57 and Ripple’s 0.62. This gap implies ETH still has room to climb before reaching a speculative peak. Additionally, ETH lags Bitcoin’s year-to-date performance: BTC rose 74% while ETH fell 28%, widening their historical performance gap. Analysts at Bitcoin Vector argue this underperformance creates a “catch-up” scenario, though the rotation’s likelihood remains untested.

The $4,000 level represents a critical psychological and technical threshold. A break above this could validate bullish sentiment, but structural bottlenecks persist. Exchange outflows and ETF inflows totaling $4 billion in two weeks highlight growing institutional interest, yet 94.4% of ETH’s supply remains in profit. The interplay between liquidity constraints and inflating demand will likely dictate whether the $9,000 target becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy or an overextended forecast.

Source: [1] [ETH bulls target $9K: Does the data support the lofty price target?](https://cointelegraph.com/news/eth-bulls-target-dollar9k-does-the-data-support-the-lofty-price-target)