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Ethereum (ETH) concluded the week with a robust rally, driven by the rapid liquidation of short positions and bullish sentiment in the options market, pushing its price above $3,600 by Friday. This surge marks a significant milestone, with ETH gaining over 20 percent on a weekly basis. Analysts predict that Ethereum could test the $4,000 level by the July 25 futures options expiry.
Dr. Sean Dawson, research director at an onchain options platform, described this upward movement as a “structural regime shift,” indicating that investors are aggressively positioning for a rapid rise to $4,000. Approximately $136 million worth of ETH short positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours, contributing to an upward price squeeze. On the Derive platform, about 25% of ETH options traded since Wednesday are focused on $3,000-$4,000 call options due July 25, with 8% of open positions positioned at $4,000. Dawson estimates a 14% probability of ETH closing above $4,000 by the end of July and a 27% probability of it closing above $5,000 by the end of 2025.
While Bitcoin is also participating in this rally, the current momentum is predominantly driven by Ethereum. The technical landscape, options flows, and liquidations signal a structural shift in market positioning. Regulatory developments in the US, including the bipartisan GENIUS Act and the Senate's introduction of the Clarity Act, have contributed to the overall market rally, with the total crypto market capitalization surpassing $4 trillion for the first time. These regulations are widely seen by investors as paving the way for clearer cryptocurrency regulations.
Institutional interest in Ethereum has also strengthened, with net inflows of $602 million into Ether spot ETFs. Michaël van de Poppe noted that Ethereum has demonstrated remarkable resilience, avoiding a deep correction and advancing towards the next significant price target of around $3,500. The analyst suggests that any price dip of 10% or more should be viewed as a strategic opportunity for traders to build their positions. Based on this analysis, Ethereum is projected to reach a new all-time high within the next few months. This bullish sentiment is supported by the fact that Ethereum has consistently held above important support levels without succumbing to deeper pullbacks. The current support is eyed around $3,200-$3,300, where previous resistance turned support, offering a safety net for bullish positions. Resistance ahead at $3,600 could be the next hurdle, potentially leading to a push towards $4,000 if volume sustains above $20 billion daily.
The recent run-up to $3,500 marks a critical breakthrough for Ethereum, reflecting strong buying interest during minor corrections. Traders should note that the 10% dip threshold serves as a strategic entry point. Historical data shows that such dips have often preceded rallies, with Ethereum's 24-hour trading volume frequently spiking during these periods, indicating institutional accumulation. This setup encourages strategies like dollar-cost averaging on dips, optimizing for informed decisions. Delving into trading strategies, the emphasis on positioning during 10%+ dips aligns with proven tactics in volatile crypto markets. For spot traders, accumulating Ethereum at these levels could yield substantial returns as the asset gears up for a new all-time high, potentially surpassing the previous peak of around $4,800. Leverage traders might consider long positions with stop-losses below $3,000 to mitigate risks, while monitoring indicators like RSI and MACD crossovers for entry signals. On-chain metrics further support this: Ethereum's network fees and DeFi TVL have been rising, correlating with price upticks and suggesting sustained demand. Cross-market correlations are noteworthy; Ethereum often moves in tandem with Bitcoin, so any Bitcoin rally could amplify Ethereum's gains. Institutional flows, evidenced by increasing Ethereum ETF inflows, add to the positive sentiment, making this an opportune time for diversified portfolios. Avoid over-leveraging, as sudden volatility spikes could trigger liquidations.
The path to a new Ethereum all-time high in the coming months hinges on macroeconomic factors like interest rate decisions and regulatory clarity, which could either propel or hinder the rally. Traders are advised to track real-time data from exchanges, focusing on pairs where liquidity is highest. This analysis not only validates the optimistic outlook but also highlights risks, such as potential bearish divergences if volume dries up. By integrating these insights, traders can navigate the market with confidence, eyeing long-tail opportunities for maximized returns.

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