Ethereum News Today: Ethereum Stuck in $2.87K-$3.09K Range as 2026 Outlook Remains Divided

Ethereum closed December 2025 at $2,921, with a market capitalization of $352.6 billion and a 24-hour trading volume of $11.47 billion. The year saw significant volatility, with ETH reaching a high of $4,390 in August before retreating to its current levels. Technical indicators like the weekly RSI and MACD histogram suggest a bearish outlook as the price remains confined between $2,774 and $3,038.

The total open interest in Ethereum futures stands at $37.3 billion, with a slight 0.62% decline in the past 24 hours. This decrease points to reduced leverage among traders, potentially signaling a period of consolidation. Institutional investors have been closely monitoring liquidation risks, particularly in the $2,880-$2,910 range, where over $100 million in long positions could be at risk.

Analysts are divided on Ethereum's 2026 outlook. Fundstrat's projections span from a $20,000 public target to an internal baseline scenario where the price could dip to $1,800-$2,000 before rebounding. Meanwhile, Bitwise and Galaxy Digital are more optimistic, expecting record highs driven by spot ETF inflows, regulatory clarity from the CLARITY Act, and the Glamsterdam upgrade.

A Volatile 2025 and a Critical 2026

Ethereum's 2025 price journey reflected a complete cycle, with a 141% total annual volatility. Starting at $3,298 in January, the price fell to a year-low of $1,794 in April before rebounding through the year. As of December, Ethereum is trading in a range-bound pattern, struggling to break above $3,090 or fall below $2,876. The liquidation heatmap and order book activity highlight these zones as key battlegrounds for institutional and retail traders.

Sharplink's co-CEO Joseph Chalom predicted that Ethereum's total value locked (TVL) could rise tenfold in 2026, driven by tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) and growing institutional interest. The tokenized RWA market is expected to hit $300 billion, and stablecoins could grow to $500 billion by the end of 2026. Chalom also noted increasing interest from sovereign wealth funds, which could see Ethereum holdings rise five- to tenfold.

Mixed Signals in the Technical and On-Chain Data

From a technical perspective, Ethereum is forming a descending triangle pattern, suggesting a bearish bias if the price breaks below the $2,900 support level. The RSI and Stochastic indicators remain in neutral to bearish territory, with the RSI at 46.267 and the Stochastic in overbought conditions. However, on-chain data tells a slightly different story, with Ethereum's exchange supply ratio dropping to 0.032 on Binance. This contraction in available liquidity may reduce downward pressure and support a potential rebound if buyers step in near key support levels.

The descending triangle pattern remains intact, with the $2,800 level acting as a critical floor. A sustained break below this could accelerate the price toward $2,750. However, shrinking exchange supply could reduce immediate selling pressure, giving buyers an opportunity to stabilize the price. The market is now at an inflection point, with a breakout above $3,090 offering the first sign of renewed bullish momentum.

Institutional Adoption and Long-Term Optimism

Despite near-term volatility, long-term bullish sentiment is supported by growing institutional adoption and regulatory clarity. The CLARITY Act is expected to provide a legal framework for crypto assets, encouraging more firms to launch products on Ethereum. Additionally, Ethereum's TVL is projected to benefit from tokenized assets and stablecoin growth. BlackRock, JPMorgan, and other major financial institutions have already begun on-chain trials, pushing TVL past $20 billion.

Fundstrat's Tom Lee also highlighted the potential for Ethereum to reach $7,000–$9,000 by early 2026, driven by institutional interest in tokenized real-world assets. Large institutions have already begun moving assets on-chain, and continued adoption could strengthen Ethereum's position as a settlement platform. These factors, combined with ongoing network upgrades like Glamsterdam and Hegota, suggest a strong foundation for long-term growth. According to market analysis, Ethereum is well-positioned for sustained growth in 2026.

Risks and Uncertainties

The path to 2026 is not without risks. Regulatory uncertainty, macroeconomic shifts, and changes in market sentiment could impact Ethereum's trajectory. Ethereum's bearish structure, combined with weak on-chain metrics like declining active addresses, highlights the challenges ahead. Traders are closely watching key support and resistance levels, with a breakdown below $2,876 potentially leading to a test of the $2,750 level. As market analysis shows, institutional activity remains a key indicator of market direction.

Analysts remain divided on the direction of the price. While some see a potential for Ethereum to test $4,200 by mid-2026, others are more cautious, anticipating a deeper correction before a sustained recovery. As the market approaches critical levels, traders are advised to monitor liquidity zones and institutional activity for early signals of a potential shift in momentum.