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Ethereum’s recent market behavior has drawn attention from analysts who believe it may be setting the stage for a significant price breakout. A key factor in this analysis is the decline in its annualized futures funding rates, which have dropped to levels not seen since before the previous rally began in late 2023 [1]. This trend suggests that speculative pressure is currently subdued, with fewer leveraged short positions being forced to liquidate. In contrast to past bullish cycles, where funding rates spiked rapidly, the current environment is marked by a more measured build-up of long-term capital inflows.
According to CoinCare, a pseudonymous analyst at CryptoQuant, Ethereum’s current rally bears a resemblance to the previous surge between Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, but with a critical difference: the absence of overheated funding rates [1]. This divergence is interpreted as a sign that a short-term cooldown may still be needed before Ethereum enters a more aggressive upward phase driven by renewed speculative interest. The analyst also highlights that major investors have recently acquired 220,000 ETH—valued at approximately $850 million—within just 48 hours, pushing their holdings to 23.5% of the total supply [1]. This accumulation is seen as a bullish on-chain signal that reduces immediate market liquidity and supports further price appreciation.
Meanwhile, Ethereum spot ETFs have drawn significant demand, collecting roughly $5 billion in just 17 days [1]. This development reflects growing institutional participation and provides steady demand from regulated investment vehicles. On the exchange front, balances have fallen to a near-decade low of 19 million ETH, with over 1 million coins withdrawn in the past month alone, further reducing near-term selling pressure [1].
Price action has also moved in favor of bulls, with ETH rising 1.7% in the last 24 hours, 7.9% in the past week, and 57% in the last 30 days [1]. It is currently trading in a tight range between $3,708 and $3,874, with $4,000 identified as the next critical resistance level. Analyst Ali Martinez notes that a move above $4,100 could trigger a significant breakout for Ethereum, potentially leading to a challenge of its 2021 all-time high [1].
While short-term indicators like the RSI point to overbought conditions and a potential pullback to $3,300 [1], the broader on-chain and institutional picture remains bullish. If CoinCare’s funding rate thesis holds true and institutional demand continues to rise, Ethereum may enter a new phase of growth driven by both fundamental and speculative forces. The market is now watching closely to see whether these signals translate into sustained momentum or if a correction is needed to clear the path for a more powerful upward move [1].

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