Ethereum News Today: Ethereum Nears $4K Resistance With $930M Short Liquidation Risk Above Threshold

Ether (ETH) is currently navigating a pivotal phase as conflicting signals emerge from on-chain metrics and derivative markets. Despite lingering just below the $4,000 resistance level since December 2025, the cryptocurrency has drawn renewed attention from traders and analysts. One key indicator to monitor is the +1σ active realized price band, which currently hovers near $4,500 and reflects the average cost of ETH actively traded on the network. Historically, this level acted as a ceiling during the 2024 high and the 2020–2021 bull cycle. A sustained breakout above it has historically triggered strong upward momentum but also introduced volatility risks [1].

On-chain data from Glassnode highlights the potential significance of this level, suggesting that a clean move past $4,000 could lead to a surge toward $4,500. This is further supported by Ethereum’s liquidation maps, which show a dense cluster of short liquidations just above the $4,000 threshold. A successful breakout could liquidate up to $930 million in positions, potentially fueling a rapid price increase [2].

The momentum is also reflected in Ethereum’s derivatives markets. According to Cointelegraph, Ether perpetual futures have surpassed Bitcoin in volume dominance for the first time since 2022, marking the largest shift in trading focus toward ETH ever recorded. A pseudonymous trader known as Byzantine General recently adjusted their outlook, stating that ETH "is too strong" and appears poised for an upward breakout [3].

However, caution is warranted. While the overall sentiment remains bullish, bearish divergence is emerging in the RSI on both the four-hour and one-day timeframes. Ether has printed new local highs in price, but the RSI has failed to confirm the strength, indicating potential buyer exhaustion. This pattern is reminiscent of past local tops and signals short-term caution [1].

On the daily chart, the bearish divergence has persisted since ETH crossed above $3,500, and a failure to break above $4,000 with convincing volume could lead to a short-term pullback toward key support zones. The immediate support range lies just below $3,700, where a narrow fair value gap (FVG) is observed. Persistent bearish pressure could push the price down further, testing the long-term FVG between $3,200 and $3,300, potentially leading to a structural breakdown [1].

In summary, while Ethereum’s bullish momentum is supported by strong on-chain activity and derivative market shifts, technical indicators suggest a need for caution. Investors should remain attentive to both the potential for a sharp rally and the risks of a near-term pullback.

Source: [1] ETH chart divergence flashes warning while onchain metric predicts rally to $4.5K (https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/688a8d97a46b022297b51c31/) [2] ETH/USDT Liquidation heatmap 3-day. Source: CoinGlass [3] Cointelegraph