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Ethereum is approaching the $4,400 resistance level, with on-chain data and technical indicators suggesting continued upward momentum. The cryptocurrency has surged from $2,400 to approximately $4,190, bringing it closer to a key price threshold. On-chain metrics, including the MACD histogram, indicate expanding
momentum, reflecting increased buying pressure in the market [1]. A daily or weekly close above $4,400 could signal the start of a more significant price move, with $4,800 as the next potential target [2].The on-chain data further supports a positive outlook. The Supply_in_loss_norm metric is near historical lows, suggesting that a limited number of holders are in a loss position, which reduces the likelihood of widespread selling [3]. The realized_price_norm is rising in line with the spot price, pointing to stronger capital inflow and a more robust network valuation [4]. Additionally, the NUPL_norm index remains in a high-positive range, indicating broad profitability across the
holder base [5]. However, the index has not yet reached levels that typically precede market corrections, suggesting there may still be room for upward movement.Analysts note that a sustained breakout above $4,400 could trigger a retest of the $4,800 level, reinforcing the bullish trend and potentially extending the current market cycle [6]. The MVRV_norm metric is approaching historical highs, reflecting strong unrealized gains among holders. While this suggests continued strength, it also raises the risk of profit-taking as investors lock in gains [7]. Such behavior could lead to short-term volatility even if the overall trend remains positive.
Price prediction models estimate Ethereum could reach $4,510.19 by January 2026, assuming a monthly growth rate of 0.42% [9]. This forecast is based on current trends and assumes the asset can maintain its upward trajectory beyond the $4,400 level, which remains a key psychological and technical barrier. The ability to hold above this level will be crucial in determining whether Ethereum enters a new bullish phase.
Market participants are closely monitoring the situation as on-chain conditions suggest the potential for further gains. The focus remains on whether Ethereum can sustain its bullish momentum and confirm a new higher trend [10]. With the $4,400 level in sight, the next move could define the short-to-medium-term direction of the asset.
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Source:
[1] https://cryptofrontnews.com/ethereum-nears-4400-breakout-as-on-chain-strength-signals-room-for-growth/
[9] https://www.bitget.com/price/ethereum/price-prediction

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