Ethereum News Today: Ethereum Nears $4,400 as Binance Inflows Signal Short-Term Bearish Pressure

Ethereum is trading near $4,200, having risen sharply from the $2,400 range, as it approaches the key resistance level of $4,400 [1]. The altcoin is now facing conflicting on-chain and exchange trends, with rising inflows on Binance suggesting short-term selling pressure, while broader exchange data remains bullish for the long term [2].

According to CryptoQuant, momentum indicators like the MACD and buying volume remain positive, but Ethereum is nearing a historically significant supply zone, increasing the likelihood of price consolidation or a breakout [1]. The Exchange Supply Ratio (ESR) across all exchanges has been declining since 2022, currently near 0.16, which suggests investors are withdrawing ETH from exchanges and reducing sell-side liquidity—a bullish sign for the long-term trend [2].

However, Binance-specific metrics tell a different story. The Binance ESR has been increasing since early 2025, reaching 0.04, indicating that some holders are moving ETH onto the exchange, likely for selling, arbitrage, or participation in exchange programs [1]. Recent netflow data also shows significant inflows into Binance, signaling potential short-term bearishness ahead of the $4,400 level [2].

This divergence points to two possible outcomes: a breakout above $4,400 could lead Ethereum toward $4,800 and a retest of its all-time high, provided Binance inflows subside or ESR stabilizes [1]. Conversely, continued heavy inflows and a rejection at $4,400 could result in a pullback toward the $3,950–$4,000 support zone before another attempt at a breakout [2].

Zooming out, the broader downtrend in the all-exchange ESR supports a bullish macro outlook, but short-term traders should closely monitor Binance ESR and netflows for signs of near-term selling pressure [2]. CryptoQuant added that long-term investors may focus on the structural trend, which remains favorable despite potential short-lived corrections [2].

Retail sentiment has also surged, with bullish hashtags trending at nearly double the rate of bearish tags. Santiment reported that while optimism is high, excessive FOMO could temporarily cool momentum [3]. Institutional interest has been equally significant, with large players acquiring over 1.035 million ETH between July 10 and early August, valued at roughly $4.17 billion [2].

Ethereum’s circulating supply also hit a record 121 million ETH on August 9, nearly three years after crossing the 120 million threshold [2]. This growth underscores the increasing demand and utility of the platform, but it also highlights the need for careful management of liquidity and sell pressure.

The divergence in exchange data and social sentiment underscores the complexity of Ethereum’s market dynamics. While the macro trend remains bullish, short-term traders must remain cautious. Institutional accumulation and retail enthusiasm are strong drivers of the current rally, but historical patterns suggest that extreme optimism can precede a correction [3].

Traders are advised to closely monitor both on-chain metrics and exchange inflow/outflow data as Ethereum tests its next major resistance level. The broader market remains in a state of tension between bullish fundamentals and bearish technical indicators, a situation that could determine the direction of the price in the coming weeks [2].

Source:

[1] "The Strange Divergence in Ethereum's Exchange Data" (https://cryptopotato.com/two-charts-two-stories-the-strange-divergence-in-ethereums-exchange-data/)

[2] "Two Charts, Two Stories: The Strange Divergence in Ethereum's Exchange Data" (https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/6898a256d2aecc707a2ad841/)

[3] "This Week in Crypto, Full Written Summary: W2 August" (https://app.santiment.net/insights/read/this-week-in-crypto-full-written-summary-w2-august-8845)