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Ether (ETH) is approaching a pivotal moment as it nears the $4,000 resistance level, a threshold it has attempted to surpass three times since February 2024. This time, however, a combination of strong ETF inflows, corporate treasury adoption, and robust network activity suggests a potential breakthrough. Institutional demand for ETH has surged, with spot Ethereum ETFs recording $9.33 billion in cumulative inflows since their July 2024 launch. Single-day inflows reached a record $727 million on July 16, and the trend has continued, with 16 consecutive days of net inflows as of July 22. BlackRock’s ETHA ETF alone holds $10.69 billion, reflecting growing institutional confidence. Corporate treasuries are also accumulating ETH, with Strategic Ether Reserves reporting that 2.33 million ETH (1.93% of circulating supply) is now held by companies. This shift underscores Ethereum’s transition from speculative asset to a core institutional holding [1].
Ethereum’s network activity has also strengthened, with daily transactions rising to 1.62 million on July 25, a 73% increase compared to the past three months’ average of 932,000. Daily active addresses hit a 12-month high of 670,000, and decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes reached $22.54 billion, the highest in 21 weeks. Total value locked (TVL) in Ethereum’s DeFi protocols has rebounded to $86 billion, capturing 61% of the market, a level not seen since 2022 [1]. Meanwhile, exchange-held ETH balances have dropped to 15.6 million, a level last observed before the 2017 bull run, signaling potential supply constraints [1].
From a technical perspective, ETH/USD has broken out of a bullish flag pattern on the four-hour chart. The pattern resolved when ETH closed above $3,740 on July 26, triggering a projection to $5,000—a 30% increase from current levels. Analysts, including Defipeniel, highlight a “cocktail of bullish energy” driven by reduced exchange supply, post-Shanghai upgrade staked ETH, and ETF demand.
CEO Michael Novogratz has forecast ETH reaching $4,000 within six months and outperforming Bitcoin during this period [1].The convergence of these factors raises the question: will Ethereum break through $4,000 or reverse? While the $5,000 target aligns with technical indicators, the outcome remains uncertain. Institutional adoption and network fundamentals provide a strong foundation, but market volatility and macroeconomic factors could influence the trajectory.
Source:
[1] [Ethereum price headed for $4K showdown: Is this time different?](https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/688796483c1f324d51532fb9/)
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