Ethereum News Today: Ethereum Hovers Near $3,644 as $2,400–$2,800 Support and GENIUS Act Fuel Outlook Amid $3,870 Resistance

Ethereum (ETH) faces a pivotal moment as on-chain data identifies the $2,400–$2,800 range as a critical support zone, offering insights into potential price resilience amid market fluctuations. A July 2025 Glassnode heatmap, visualized by @ali_charts on X, highlights this corridor as a concentration of accumulated ETH holdings, suggesting a psychological and technical floor to counter further declines [1]. Current prices hover near $3,644, according to a July 24 report, with the long-term ascending channel since 2018 reinforcing bullish sentiment if support remains intact above $2,800 [1]. A successful defense of this zone could position ETH for a breakout above $4,100 resistance, pending confirmation of sustained buying pressure [1].

Legislative developments add another layer of optimism. The Senate’s passage of the GENIUS Act on July 23, 2025, aims to regulate stablecoins and tokenized assets—sectors where Ethereum holds a dominant role [1]. Analysts suggest this framework could attract institutional capital, amplifying demand and strengthening the identified support range [1]. With a market cap of $438.71 billion and daily trading volume near $45.66 billion, ETH’s positioning for upward movement remains contingent on maintaining this key level [1].

Technical analysis from multiple sources underscores the $3,870 level as a critical resistance threshold. Recent data shows Ethereum rebounding from $2,800, with traders cautiously eyeing a potential breakout [2]. Weekly charts indicate a bullish structure, but a confirmed close above $3,870 is pending, leaving the market in a state of anticipation. Short-term volatility persists, as ETH briefly dipped below key moving averages to $3,530 before reversing, though it remains below the 99-period SMA—a linchpin for bullish momentum [2]. Analysts emphasize that sustained volume and a decisive close above $3,870 are essential to validate an upward continuation. A failure to breach this level could trigger consolidation or a retest of lower supports [2].

Divergent forecasts highlight the uncertainty. Binance Square profile “Jens_” projects a minor correction to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (~$2,797) before a potential rally, aligning with broader market sentiment [3]. Coinpedia outlines two scenarios: a breakout above $4,096 if $3,870 is cleared, or a retest of $3,525 if resistance proves insurmountable [4]. These projections underscore the pivotal role of $3,870, which has historically triggered sharp corrections during prior attempts to break through [4].

On-chain metrics provide additional context. Daily Ethereum transactions reached a multi-year high of 1.51 million, reflecting accelerated adoption [5]. However, bulls must defend the $3,600 zone, which has transitioned from support to resistance after recent consolidation [6]. Analysts like Van de Poppe stress monitoring $2,800 as a critical support, with a breakdown signaling further downside risk [6].

Distinguishing forecasts from actual outcomes is crucial. While the $3,870 level and Fibonacci targets represent historical patterns, they are not guaranteed price movements. Macro shifts or regulatory developments could rapidly alter dynamics. For now, the focus remains on Ethereum’s ability to stay above key moving averages and confirm a breakout with sustained volume [2].

Sources:

[1] [Ethereum’s Key Support Zone: Insights from On-Chain Data](https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/688316547d1070328ddde5b6/)

[2] [Ethereum Price Prediction - $4096 Breakout or Pullback to $3525](https://coinpedia.org/price-analysis/ethereum-price-prediction-4096-breakout-or-pullback-to-3525/)

[3] [Jens_'s Profile | Binance Square](https://www.binance.com/en-BH/square/profile/MrAlbert)

[4] [Is Ethereum Gearing Up for the Next Big Leg?](https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/27351089296777)

[5] [Ethereum Adoption Accelerates As Daily Transactions Set 2025 Record](https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:ea803c661094b:0-ethereum-adoption-accelerates-as-daily-transactions-set-2025-record/)

[6] [Ethereum Consolidates Near $3500 After 13-14% Weekly Gain](https://www.ainvest.com/news/ethereum-news-today-ethereum-consolidates-3-500-13-14-weekly-gain-eyes-4-000-breakout-2-18b-etf-inflows-2507/)