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Ethereum’s price has dropped below $3,700, marking a 3.7% decline from its recent highs as of August 1, 2025. This move reflects a broader market adjustment amid liquidity shifts and institutional activity. On-chain data indicates that exchange-held ETH reserves have decreased by 1 million over the past month, suggesting a shift toward self-custody and cold storage [10]. Despite the price drop, institutional inflows into Ethereum-based products remain robust, with spot Ether ETFs recording a record 19-day inflow streak. This trend highlights continued confidence from institutional investors, who are viewed as a stabilizing force in the face of short-term volatility [7].
The price decline has led to increased liquidations on major exchanges, particularly as ETH struggled to maintain the $3,800 support level. The move below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-hourly SMA has amplified bearish sentiment among traders [1]. However, Ethereum’s resilience was evident on July 31, when the price staged a sharp V-shaped recovery after briefly slipping below $3,700 in early trading. The asset has held key pivot levels between $3,700 and $3,750, maintaining a crucial line of defense for short-term bullish positions [4].
Analysts remain divided on the near-term trajectory. While some view the current drop as part of a normal correction cycle, others point to strong on-chain metrics and historical patterns that suggest a potential rebound. On-chain analyst Ali Martinez noted the declining exchange-held ETH reserves as a sign of reduced sell-side pressure and growing retail self-custody [10]. Meanwhile, ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen expressed optimism, predicting Ethereum could break above $4,000 in the coming months and reach all-time highs between $5,700 and $7,500 [10]. Others, including "Crypto GEMs," project a more moderate target of $5,000 by the end of August [10].
Despite the recent bearish momentum, Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin in the third quarter of 2025, with returns nearly five times higher than BTC. However, this outperformance is considered more reflective of the broader market rally rather than a fundamental breakout [6]. The price has tested the $3,700 level multiple times without a decisive move higher, leaving traders in anticipation of a potential reversal or continued downward drift [10].
The current environment underscores a tug-of-war between bearish technical indicators and bullish institutional support. As Ethereum remains below $3,700, the focus remains on how institutional demand and on-chain metrics will influence the asset’s near-term direction [7].
Source:
[1] title1 (https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/27674319627833)
[4] title2 (https://www.marketpulse.com/news/the-sec-launches-project-crypto-crypto-news/)
[6] title4 (https://www.ainvest.com/news/ethereum-news-today-ethereum-surpasses-bitcoin-q3-5x-higher-returns-2507/)
[7] title5 (https://decrypt.co/332907/the-ether-machine-becomes-third-largest-ethereum-holder-with-56-9m-eth-buy)
[10] title7 (https://cryptoadventure.com/ethereum-defies-correction-calls-as-analysts-eye-5000-target-by-august)

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