Ethereum News Today: Ethereum Eyes $3,625 Rebound as Triangle Breakout Fuels $16K Price Outlook

Ethereum is currently navigating a complex technical landscape amid a recent price correction, with analysts closely watching a cluster of key support levels. The cryptocurrency trades near $3,460, having recovered above the 26 EMA on the daily chart, a positive sign for short-term bullish momentum [1]. This level, alongside a rare alignment of 10 weekly moving averages, is reinforcing price stability and signaling strong institutional confidence and historical buying pressure [1]. These averages, representing years of price history and consolidation patterns, are seen as a layered defense against sharp declines [1].

The daily 26 EMA, currently near $3,400, has become a critical support level. Ethereum's ability to trade above this line reflects positive short-term momentum. Combined with improved trading volume and a cooling RSI, it suggests the asset may enter a phase of sideways or mildly bullish consolidation before making further directional moves [1]. However, if the price breaks below this key average, it could signal a deeper correction, with potential support levels at the 100 EMA on the 4H chart and the 200 EMA at $3,307 [4].

Technical indicators are currently flashing bearish signals. The Directional Movement Index (DMI) shows a sharp -DI spike to 30.4 while the +DI drops to 11.0, highlighting seller dominance [4]. On the 30-minute chart, the RSI has fallen to 30.9, nearing oversold levels, though the MACD remains strongly bearish [4]. Meanwhile, Ethereum recorded a net outflow of $113.19 million on August 1, signaling increased exchange withdrawals and declining spot interest [4].

Analysts are divided on the implications of this pullback. Some, like @TedPillows, emphasize the importance of the $3,625 level as a key support zone. A breakdown here could lead to further corrections and a liquidity grab [4]. Others are more optimistic, suggesting that a retest and reclamation of $3,700 could trigger a bullish reversal, particularly if Ethereum flips key resistance levels like $3,784 and $3,899 [4]. On-chain volume spikes and RSI divergences on lower timeframes may also provide early signals of a local bottom forming [4].

Looking at the broader chart, Ethereum appears to be forming a monthly ascending triangle, a pattern historically associated with strong breakouts [4]. Crypto strategist @Defi_Edward points out that a breakout above the $4,000 resistance could potentially project the price toward the $15,000–$16,000 range. This view is supported by four key factors: sustained inflows into spot ETFs, a capped issuance model, rising institutional interest, and expanding real-world utility through tokenization and Layer 2 adoption [4].

Ethereum’s Layer 2 networks, including Arbitrum and Optimism, are experiencing increased transaction volumes, pointing to growing developer activity and adoption [4]. Staking rewards and validator income remain stable, further reinforcing long-term investor confidence [4]. Gas fees have remained moderate, supported by post-Dencun upgrades and a shift toward Layer 2 solutions, indicating that Ethereum’s economic bandwidth is expanding even amid price consolidation [4].

Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum is showing stronger momentum in Layer 2 adoption and real-world use cases. Analysts suggest that if this trend continues, particularly with ongoing ETF inflows and staking rewards, Ethereum could outperform Bitcoin in the second half of 2025 [4]. Michaël van de Poppe forecasts a short-term top near $4,000 before Ethereum resumes a broader rally, noting that the current pullback is a healthy correction that could set the stage for altcoin outperformance into early 2026 [4].

Despite the uncertainty, Ethereum remains within a healthy uptrend. The battle for control of key technical levels, especially the $3,625 zone, will be closely monitored by traders and investors. On-chain flows and key chart levels are expected to provide early clues about the direction of the next move, as the market braces for potential volatility in the coming weeks [4].

[1] Ethereum May Find Support Amid Multi-Level Moving Averages Despite Recent Price Correction (https://en.coinotag.com/ethereum-may-find-support-amid-multi-level-moving-averages-despite-recent-price-correction/)

[4] Ethereum Eyes $3625 Rebound as Triangle Breakout Fuels 16k Price Outlook (https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/ethereum-eth-price-prediction-ethereum-eyes-3625-rebound-as-triangle-breakout-fuels-16k-price-outlook)