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Ethereum is encountering early distribution signals amid record ETF outflows and heightened market volatility, raising concerns over its ability to maintain key price levels above $3,600. The cryptocurrency has seen a significant shift in institutional flows, with Ethereum ETFs reporting over $500 million in outflows in a single day [1]. This marks a stark contrast to the steady inflows observed in July 2025 and signals a cooling in institutional demand.
Adding to the bearish momentum, Ethereum’s Open Interest has dropped by $10 billion in just ten days, pointing to a widespread de-risking move across the market [2]. This decline in Open Interest suggests a reduction in speculative trading activity and increased caution among traders. Notably, the outflows have been accompanied by over $1 billion in Realized Profits in back-to-back days, indicating that much of the selling pressure stems from profit-taking rather than panic-driven liquidation.
Despite these challenges, institutional players have shown a mixed response.
, for example, recently purchased 23,000 ETH (valued at approximately $88 million), signaling that some institutional actors continue to view Ethereum as a strategic opportunity [1]. This activity highlights a divergence between short-term volatility and long-term accumulation strategies, with smart money players buying the dip amid the broader pullback.Ethereum’s price has already experienced a 9.67% weekly decline, marking its first significant red candle in months [1]. However, the asset has since bounced back nearly 4%, demonstrating some resilience in the face of downward pressure. Analysts suggest that this bounce may not be sustainable unless Ethereum can establish a firm base above $3,800. Failure to hold this level could lead to further declines toward the 50-week and 200-week exponential moving averages, currently at $2,736 and $2,333, respectively [1]. A move to these levels would represent a potential 25%-35% correction from current prices.
The recent price action mirrors a similar pattern seen in December 2024, when Ethereum collapsed 66% after failing to break through the same resistance level [1]. At that time, the weekly RSI moved out of overbought territory, and the Net Taker Volume turned sharply negative—patterns now reappearing in 2025. Analysts warn that a comparable decline could occur if Ethereum continues to struggle with its key support and resistance levels.
In addition to Ethereum’s struggles, the broader cryptocurrency market is also showing signs of weakness. Bitcoin is facing similar resistance retesting and has experienced a four-day outflow streak, suggesting a synchronized bearish trend across major crypto assets [1]. The ETF outflows in Ethereum have also been mirrored by Bitcoin ETFs, indicating a broader shift in institutional sentiment [1].
Fidelity’s recent movement of 14,978 ETH ($53.6 million) to Coinbase Prime is seen as a classic profit-taking strategy by smart money as the market turns risk-off [1]. This activity underscores the potential for further profit-taking and distribution, especially if Ethereum continues to underperform against key technical levels.
While the immediate outlook appears challenging, the market remains dynamic. Ethereum’s 4% bounce off recent lows has sparked optimism among some traders, though analysts caution that the rally lacks the depth and conviction to signal a sustained uptrend [1]. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining whether Ethereum can stabilize and reestablish a bullish trajectory or whether the projected correction will unfold as expected [1].
Source:
[1] https://en.coinotag.com/ethereum-eth-faces-potential-25-35-decline-as-resistance-zone-retested-amid-historic-sell-pressure/
[2] https://www.facebook.com/groups/2373610969516780/posts/2834731230071416/
[6] https://www.bitget.com/price/jesus-2.0/price-prediction
[7] https://cryptodnes.bg/en/news/bitcoin/
[9] https://stocktwits.com/symbol/CFX.X

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