Ethereum News Today: Ethereum's Critical Resistance Test: Breakout to $4,620 or Impending Correction?

Ethereum faces a critical juncture as technical indicators and price action align at key resistance levels. Analysts highlight a sell signal from the Tom Demark (TD) Sequential indicator, which has activated after nine consecutive green candles-a setup phase suggesting potential exhaustion of the bullish trend. Concurrently, Ethereum is retesting the upper boundary of a descending channel that has defined its price action over the past two months. This channel, characterized by lower highs and lower lows, has seen ETH rebound from its lower boundary in late September, but recent attempts to break above the upper resistance have met with mixed results. The TD Sequential's sell signal, combined with the retest of this critical resistance, has raised concerns about a near-term correction.

The descending channel's structure provides context for Ethereum's immediate outlook. The upper boundary currently sits near $4,600–$4,620, a level that has previously stalled rallies. If the asset fails to sustain a breakout above this zone, it risks retracing to midline support around $4,100 or even the lower boundary at $3,780, according to technical analysis by Ali Martinez. This scenario aligns with historical patterns observed in similar TD Sequential setups, where overextended momentum often precedes corrections. The indicator's countdown phase-measuring thirteen candles post-setup-has not yet concluded, adding uncertainty to the short-term trajectory.

Market data underscores Ethereum's recent volatility. After a sharp 13% rally over the past week, ETH now trades near $4,730, but bears remain active at key resistance. On-chain metrics reveal a tug-of-war between bulls and bears: Ethereum's 100-hour simple moving average (SMA) at $4,480–$4,500 remains a pivotal support zone, while open interest and leverage levels suggest heightened positioning. ETF inflows totaling $547 million in recent days reflect institutional confidence, yet futures market data shows subdued open interest, indicating cautious sentiment ahead of potential volatility.

Analysts have diverged in their assessments of Ethereum's next move. A bullish case hinges on a successful breakout above $4,620, which could trigger a rally toward $4,800 and eventually $5,000. This view is supported by the fact that Ethereum has maintained buying pressure above its 100-hour SMA and has seen consistent inflows into spot ETFs. However, bearish scenarios remain plausible. If the TD Sequential's sell signal plays out, Ethereum could face a pullback to $4,350 or lower, with further declines to $4,100–$3,780 as a worst-case outcome.

Broader market dynamics add complexity to the outlook. While Ethereum's price has benefited from Ethereum 2.0 anticipation and macroeconomic tailwinds, its performance relative to Bitcoin remains a key variable. Recent data shows Ethereum attracting retail capital in South Korea, with $6 billion flowing into treasury companies. However, critics warn that this liquidity is speculative, and any profit-taking could exacerbate short-term volatility. Additionally, the asset's market structure suggests a consolidation phase, with traders closely watching whether Ethereum can retest higher resistance levels without succumbing to bearish pressure.

In summary, Ethereum's immediate path hinges on its ability to overcome the TD Sequential sell signal and sustain a breakout above the descending channel's upper boundary. A failure to do so could trigger a correction to $4,100 or below, while a sustained rally above $4,620 may pave the way for a multi-month bullish trend. Investors are advised to monitor key technical levels and institutional activity as the asset navigates this critical juncture.

Source: [1] Ethereum Faces TD Sell Signal At Key Resistance-$4,100 Next? (https://www.coinsurges.com/ethereum-faces-td-sell-signal-at-key-resistance-4100-next/)

[2] Ethereum Faces Crucial Test as Sell Signal Emerges Amid Resistance (https://thefinancialanalyst.net/2025/10/07/ethereum-faces-crucial-test-as-sell-signal-emerges-amid-resistance/)

[3] Ethereum Faces TD Sell Signal Near Resistance as Bulls Eye $7,500 Breakout Target (https://www.livebitcoinnews.com/ethereum-faces-td-sell-signal-near-resistance-as-bulls-eye-7500-breakout-target/)

[4] ETH News: Ethereum Sell Signal Emerges at $4,600 (https://thetradable.com/crypto/eth-news-ethereum-sell-signal-emerges-at-4600-ig--m)

[5] Ethereum (ETH) Price Tests Key Resistance as Analysts Eye Breakout Above $4,100 (https://coincodex.com/article/70761/ethereum-price-tests-key-resistance-as-analysts-eye-breakout-above-4100/)

[6] Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH Faces Rejection Near Key Resistance Despite $547M ETF Inflows (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-forecast-eth-faces-rejection-near-key-resistance-despite-547-million-etf-inflows-202509301934)