Ethereum News Today: Ethereum Aims for $4,000 Breakout After 48.77% July Surge

Ethereum stands at a pivotal juncture as traders and analysts closely watch the $4,000 level to determine the asset’s next major move. After surging by 48.77% in July, ETH enters August with strong momentum but faces conflicting signals from historical seasonality and recent bullish trends. The key for Ethereum lies in its ability to break and hold above $4,000, a critical resistance level that has not been consistently held since late 2021. A sustained move above this threshold could establish fresh support and potentially propel the asset toward all-time highs by year-end [1].

August has traditionally been a challenging month for Ethereum, marked by an average return of -12.56%. However, this year’s conditions are different. In post-election years, Ethereum has historically posted an average gain of 63.8% in August. This data, coupled with current market sentiment, increases the likelihood of a strong performance this month. Analysts note that a breakout above $4,000 would not only validate current momentum but also counterbalance potential weakness in September, should it materialize [2].

Technical analysis suggests two primary scenarios for Ethereum in the near term. The first involves a clean breakout above $4,000, setting the stage for higher highs. The second sees a temporary consolidation phase after a failed attempt at the resistance level. Both paths, however, highlight Ethereum’s strong technical foundation and undecided trajectory. Momentum appears to be gaining the upper hand over historical seasonality, especially given the asset’s robust July performance [3].

Market observers such as Benjamin Cowen have emphasized the importance of an August breakout. He argues that breaking above $4,000 could allow Ethereum to build strength through the remainder of the cycle, particularly if September’s expected weakness results in a retest of the level. In that case, the psychological and technical support from a successful breakout would help maintain upward momentum [4].

Despite the bullish indicators, Ethereum’s August performance will also depend on broader macroeconomic trends and interactions with key technical levels. The current environment shares similarities with past post-election years, where Ethereum experienced significant gains. This historical context, combined with increased market demand and strength in market structure, supports the possibility of continued upward movement [5].

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[1][2][3][4][5]

[1] "ETH at a Crossroads: $4K Breakout or Seasonal Pullback Ahead?" (https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/688dc680a575141c7544cb0b/)

[4] "I think these are the two most likely paths for ETH right now." (Twitter, Benjamin Cowen, August 2, 2025)

[5] "ETH just closed July with a 48.77% gain." (Twitter, Lark Davis, August 1, 2025)