Ethereum News Today: Ethereum's $3,500 Crucible: Bearish Setup Threatens $2,600 Slide

Ethereum (ETH) faces a critical juncture in October 2025 as technical indicators and market dynamics signal a bearish setup, raising concerns about a potential downside move. The token's price has fluctuated sharply, dropping to $3,510 on October 11 following a $19 billion liquidation event triggered by geopolitical tensions and tariff announcements. This decline, the largest single-day selloff of 2025, pulled ETH from near $4,300 to a seven-month low, exposing vulnerabilities in its short-term support structure.

Technical analysis highlights a bearish crossover between the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA), confirming short-term selling pressure. While the 200-day EMA remains a critical long-term support line, a break below the $3,500 level could expose further downside risks, with potential targets near $3,100 or even $2,600. On-chain data also reveals weak momentum, with the RSI trending downward to 46.3 and the MACD line remaining below the signal line, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

The bearish scenario is compounded by macroeconomic factors. Tariff announcements by U.S. President Donald Trump, including a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1, exacerbated market jitters. Global indices like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones fell by 2.71% and 1.90%, respectively, as investors shifted to safe-haven assets like gold. Ethereum's correlation with broader market sentiment is evident, as it mirrored the downturn alongside Bitcoin and Solana.

Institutional activity, while a long-term bullish factor, has not provided immediate relief. Exchange supply levels hit 9-year lows in October, reflecting institutional accumulation and staking activity. However, ETF outflows and reduced liquidity on exchanges have offset these gains. For instance, BlackRock's ETH ETF product "ETHA" experienced an $80.2 million outflow, signaling caution among large investors. Additionally, whale activity has been mixed: while some large holders continue to accumulate ETH, others have moved significant volumes to exchanges, raising concerns about potential offloading.

Analysts remain divided on Ethereum's near-term outlook. A bearish correction near $4,075 is anticipated, with a rebound scenario targeting $5,775 if buying interest resumes. Conversely, a sustained breakdown below $4,200 could invalidate bullish projections, pushing the price toward $3,800 or lower. The coming weeks will be pivotal, as institutional inflows, macroeconomic stability, and on-chain activity will determine whether Ethereum consolidates at current levels or enters a deeper correction.

[1] Ethereum Price Prediction October 2025: ETH Targets $4,300 as Exchange Supply Hits 9-Year Low (https://coincentral.com/ethereum-price-prediction-october-2025-eth-targets-4300-as-exchange-supply-hits-9-year-low/)

[2] How Low Could Ethereum Go If $3,500 Support Breaks? - Coinpedia (https://coinpedia.org/price-analysis/how-low-could-ethereum-go-if-3500-support-breaks/)

[5] Ethereum (ETHUSD) Weekly Analysis & Outlook – Week 42, October 2025 (https://copygram.app/blog/trading-ideas/ethereum-ethusd-weekly-analysis-outlook-october-2025-week-42)

[6] Ethereum Struggles as Market Faces Bearish Outlook in 2025 (https://thecurrencyanalytics.com/altcoins/ethereum-struggles-as-market-faces-bearish-outlook-in-2025-168019)