Ethereum News Today: Ethereum's $3,170 Make-or-Break Test as FUSAKA Upgrade Looms

Ethereum's price trajectory has drawn renewed attention as technical indicators and the imminent FUSAKA upgrade converge to shape near-term expectations. Traders are monitoring a critical 9% price target of $3,170, which analysts argue could unlock further upside toward $3,633 if buyers successfully breach this level. Current trading near $2,900 has sparked cautious optimism, supported by on-chain metrics suggesting a potential bottoming process. The FUSAKA upgrade, set to activate on December 3, 2025, is expected to amplify network activity through faster confirmations, reduced fees, and cheaper NFT minting, potentially reinforcing demand-driven price action.

Technical analysis highlights the $3,170 threshold as a pivotal psychological and structural level. A 9% rise from current levels would not only validate bullish momentum but also align with historical resistance zones at $3,247 and $3,633, which coincided with prior trend reversals. Moving average dynamics add nuance: a bullish crossover earlier this month-where the 50-day exponential moving average crossed above the 200-day line-has contrasted with past bearish "death cross" events, such as the November crossover that preceded a sharp decline. This divergence underscores the current resilience of the $2,900 support level, which has held firm despite a broader bearish macro environment.

The FUSAKA upgrade's role in Ethereum's scaling roadmap further contextualizes its significance. As the second major hard fork of 2025 following the Pectra upgrade, FUSAKA introduces PeerDAS (peer data availability sampling), a mechanism allowing validators to verify rollup data without downloading full datasets. This innovation is designed to reduce bandwidth and storage demands while enabling higher throughput, aligning with Ethereum's Surge, Verge, and Purge roadmaps. By improving data availability for rollups and introducing parameter adjustments for future capacity increases, FUSAKA aims to sustainably enhance network scalability. Analysts like Tom Lee view this as a foundational step for Ethereum's long-term growth, particularly as transaction demand from decentralized finance (DeFi) and NFT markets continues to evolve.

On-chain metrics provide additional layers of insight. The Network Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio has dipped to levels observed prior to the 2025 rally, indicating a potential accumulation phase where weak-handed sellers have already exited. This aligns with historical patterns where NUPL troughs preceded price rebounds, such as the $2,230-to-$4,829 surge in early 2025. Whale activity, however, remains mixed: a $40 million long position signals short-term confidence, yet net capital outflows suggest lingering caution among larger holders. This duality reinforces the importance of a clean close above $3,170 to confirm a shift in market sentiment.

While the FUSAKA upgrade offers structural tailwinds, its immediate price impact hinges on market dynamics. The upgrade's capacity to reduce friction for rollups and NFTs could attract new users, but sustained price gains require continued buyer participation. If Ethereum fails to break through $3,170, the asset risks stagnation in a consolidation phase, with the upgrade's long-term benefits offset by short-term volatility. Traders are thus closely monitoring both on-chain flows and the technical level as dual catalysts for a potential breakout.