Ethereum News Today: Ethereum's $2,900 Standoff: ETF Buys vs. Fed Uncertainty and Liquidation Risks

Ethereum (ETH) steadied near $2,900 on November 25, 2025, as market participants weighed the likelihood of a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate cut in December against conflicting signals from on-chain activity and technical indicators. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization had rebounded from a multi-year support level around $2,850, rekindling hopes of a potential rally toward a new all-time high. Analysts highlighted a confluence of factors, including rising inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs, aggressive accumulation by large whale wallets, and shifting expectations about U.S. monetary policy.

The recent ETH price action was driven in part by capital rotation into altcoins, a trend amplified by the launch of spot crypto ETFs. According to data from Blockonomi, Ethereum ETFs recorded $96.67 million in net inflows on November 24, with BlackRock's product contributing $92.6 million-its first inflow in two weeks. This followed a week of outflows totaling $1.5 billion, which had pushed the price down to $2,800 earlier in the month. The mixed flow dynamics underscored the market's uncertainty, with Polymarket traders now pricing in an 80% probability of a December rate cut, up sharply from 30% the prior week.

On-chain activity also pointed to bullish sentiment. CoinGlass data revealed a sharp decline in Ethereum's supply on centralized exchanges since mid-August, a historical precursor to price rallies. Meanwhile, large whale wallets, including BitMine, added 69,822 ETH worth over $200 million, bringing their total holdings to 3.63 million ETH, or roughly 3% of the circulating supply. Such accumulation, coupled with a drop in Bitcoin's dominance to 58% from 61% in early November, signaled growing confidence in an "altseason 2025".

Technical indicators offered a nuanced outlook. While Ethereum's MACD crossed above its signal line on the four-hour chart, suggesting near-term bullish momentum, the RSI hovered near the neutral 50 level, indicating a lack of strong buying pressure. The price remained below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $3,132, a critical threshold for confirming a sustained recovery. Analysts from Blockchain.News projected a 15.3% rally to $3,400 within seven days if ETH broke above $3,132, but warned of a potential decline to $2,623 if the level failed.

The market's optimism was tempered by lingering risks. The October 10 liquidation event continued to weigh on sentiment, with institutions unwinding leveraged positions in both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Additionally, Ethereum treasury firms were offloading holdings to reduce discounts to their net asset value (NAV), a practice that could exacerbate short-term selling pressure.

Looking ahead, the Fed's December decision and broader liquidity injections were seen as pivotal. The U.S. central bank's planned quantitative easing (QE) starting December 1 was expected to boost global liquidity, while a successful rate cut could further incentivize risk-on trades. BlackRock's recent filing for a staked Ethereum ETF added another layer of complexity, as it sought to differentiate its product by offering yield-based returns through on-chain staking-a feature absent in existing spot ETFs.

Ethereum's path remains fraught with challenges, but the interplay of ETF-driven inflows, whale accumulation, and shifting macroeconomic conditions has created a scenario where a rebound to $3,400 is increasingly plausible. As the market awaits clarity on the Fed's policy stance and Ethereum's technical setup evolves, traders will closely monitor the $3,132 level for decisive action.