Ethereum News Today: Bullish Breakout or Bearish Trap: Ethereum's Fate Hinges on $4,300

Ethereum's price action remains a focal point for traders and analysts as the cryptocurrency holds above critical support levels, sparking debates over its near-term trajectory. On October 28, Ethereum (ETH) traded near $3,900, defending the lower boundary of an ascending triangle pattern, with bulls eyeing a potential breakout toward $4,800–$4,900 if resistance at $4,300 is overcome, according to a crypto.news analysis. The asset's resilience has been bolstered by renewed institutional interest, highlighted by $246 million in net inflows into Ethereum spot ETFs on the same day, the crypto.news piece noted. Meanwhile, major holders like BitMine Immersion Technologies, now owning 3.31 million ETH (worth over $13.3 billion), continue to signal confidence in the asset, the report added.

Technical indicators present a mixed picture. The Stochastic RSI on the daily chart has retreated from overbought levels, suggesting a possible short-term consolidation phase before a breakout attempt, the crypto.news analysis observed. Analysts like Ali Martinez note that a breach above $4,250–$4,300 could validate the ascending triangle, unlocking upside momentum, per that coverage. However, bearish risks persist. On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum's failure to reclaim the 200-day moving average (currently around $3,350) and its recent rejection near $4,200 raise concerns about a double-top formation, a classic bearish reversal pattern, in a Yahoo Finance note.

Fundamental flows add complexity. While ETF inflows and whale accumulation—evidenced by large holders reaccumulating 218,470 ETH in a week—suggest bullish sentiment, an FXLeaders report highlighted significant on-chain buying. Macroeconomic uncertainties ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision also weigh on the market, as the crypto.news coverage cautioned. Some analysts caution that Ethereum's structure resembles a "textbook double top," with weakening volume and relative strength index (RSI) readings pointing to diminishing buying pressure, according to a U.Today analysis.

Price targets diverge sharply. Optimists cite historical parallels to Bitcoin's post-halving rally, projecting ETH could reach $7,000–$8,000 by December 2025, as the FXLeaders report noted. Others, however, warn of a potential slide to $3,600 if key support levels fail, according to an AltcoinBuzz analysis. Fibonacci retracement levels further complicate the outlook, with the 61.8% level at $3,221 and an extension target of $5,823 creating ambiguity for traders, an AltcoinBuzz piece observed.

The coming days will be pivotal. A sustained break above $4,300 could reignite bullish momentum, while a drop below $3,750—currently aligned with the 100-day EMA—might trigger a deeper correction, the AltcoinBuzz analysis warned. As the market awaits clarity, Ethereum's performance will likely hinge on institutional flows, macroeconomic developments, and whether on-chain accumulation by whales continues to outweigh selling pressure.