Ethereum News Today: Altcoin Season Remains Unconfirmed as Key Metrics Fall Short of Threshold

The recent surge in altcoin prices has reignited discussions about the possibility of an altcoin season, with traders and analysts closely monitoring market dynamics. However, key metrics suggest that the market is still in a warming-up phase rather than the full-blown altcoin season witnessed in previous cycles. The Altcoin Season Index, a critical indicator tracking the performance of top altcoins relative to Bitcoin over the last 90 days, currently stands at 51. While this is an improvement from below 40 a few weeks ago, it remains significantly below the 75 threshold needed to confirm a true altcoin season [1].

Bitcoin dominance has decreased from 65% to 58.9% over the past month, signaling a shift in capital from Bitcoin to altcoins [1]. This trend is often seen as the early sign of an altcoin rally. However, Ethereum, traditionally a leading indicator during altcoin seasons, has not yet demonstrated the strength expected. Ethereum’s dominance is currently below 15%, far from its 2024 peak of 22.5%. Moreover, the ETH/BTC pair remains in a sideways range with no breakout in sight, despite Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high [1].

The total altcoin open interest has surged to $47.01 billion, nearing the levels seen in November 2021 during the last bullish cycle [1]. Open interest reflects the number of unsettled futures contracts, and a sharp rise indicates increased speculative activity. Notably, over half of this open interest—$23.6 billion—comes from Ethereum, which, while positive, is not necessarily indicative of strong ETH price momentum. Solana follows with $7.4 billion, and XRP with $3.9 billion, highlighting that much of the current interest is concentrated in large-cap altcoins [1].

The limited participation from small-cap altcoins and the absence of a clear Ethereum-led breakout raise concerns about the sustainability of the current rally. High open interest also increases the risk of sharp corrections, as leveraged positions could be liquidated rapidly if prices drop unexpectedly. This risk is further compounded by the fact that Ethereum is not yet showing the conviction needed to drive broader altcoin momentum [1].

User sentiment, as reflected in Google Trends, is also mixed. While searches for “altcoin season” have increased in the past week, the overall interest remains below the levels seen in 2021. Considering the much larger number of altcoins in 2025, a higher level of public interest would be required to match the enthusiasm of previous cycles [1].

Social media is buzzing with excitement, with traders sharing charts and dominance flips. However, this enthusiasm has not yet translated into broad retail participation or significant price movement in key altcoins. Until the Altcoin Season Index crosses the 75 threshold and Ethereum gains more strength relative to Bitcoin, the market remains in a pre-season phase. Traders are thus exercising caution, particularly with the high number of leveraged positions that could become liabilities in a volatile environment [1].

Source: [1] Chances of An Altcoin Season: This Metric Dampens Hope (https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/689ec48335c5a13926ae1351/)