Ethereum/Mexican Peso Market Overview

Summary
• ETHMXN opened at 63172.0 and closed at 63000.0 after hitting a high of 64678.0 and a low of 62932.0.
• Momentum shows mixed signals with RSI indicating overbought and oversold conditions at different intervals.
• Volume dropped significantly after initial morning volatility, raising concerns about conviction in current price levels.

Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) opened at 63172.0 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET and closed at 63000.0 the next day at the same time. The pair reached a 24-hour high of 64678.0 and a low of 62932.0. Total volume traded over the period was approximately 6.30 ETH, with notional turnover amounting to roughly 397,877 MXN. The price action reflected sharp but ultimately inconclusive moves, with a notable pullback after reaching midday highs.

Structure & Formations

Key resistance emerged around 64678.0, where the price briefly touched before reversing. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at that level, signaling potential reversal. Later in the session, a deep retracement to 62932.0 suggested a strong support area forming in the lower range of the day. A morning doji at 64521.0 also hinted at indecision among traders, as buyers and sellers reached a stalemate before the price eventually drifted lower.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA in the early hours, offering temporary bullish momentum. However, as the session progressed, the 50 MA caught up and overtook the 20 MA, hinting at weakening bullish conviction. Daily MAs (50, 100, 200) remained unbroken, with ETHMXN closing below all three, reinforcing the short-term bearish sentiment against the longer-term trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bullish crossover in the early hours but failed to sustain it, with the histogram shrinking and turning negative by midday. RSI spiked to 73 (overbought) during the rally but quickly fell below 50, reflecting the price pullback. Later in the session, RSI dropped into oversold territory at 30, suggesting possible support near 62932.0, though confirmation via higher lows is needed.

Bollinger Bands

The price initially broke above the upper band, indicating strong volatility, but then collapsed back into the channel, settling near the lower band by the end of the session. This volatility contraction at the close suggests a potential pause in the trend, though the wider band width during the rally reflects heightened market anxiety.

Volume & Turnover

Turnover spiked early in the morning as the price surged above 64400.0, with over 1.0 ETH traded in one 15-minute interval. However, the following hours saw a sharp drop in volume, particularly from 19:00 to 22:00 ET, where volumes remained flat or close to zero. This divergence between price movement and volume raises questions about the strength of the current trend and may signal a potential reversal in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart identified 63750.0 (38.2%), 64104.0 (50%), and 64678.0 (61.8%) as key resistance levels. The price failed to hold above the 50% and 61.8% levels, reinforcing bearish momentum. On the daily chart, 63400.0 and 62500.0 emerged as potential support zones for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy based on MACD Golden Cross and Death Cross events could provide insight into the market’s trending behavior. However, the accuracy of such a test depends on identifying the correct ticker symbol for ETHMXN. Common options include ETHMXN, ETHMXN=X (Yahoo Finance format), or ETHM.O (as used in the provided dataset). Confirming the correct ticker is crucial for retrieving accurate MACD data. Once identified, the strategy would involve entering long positions on Golden Cross signals and short positions on Death Cross signals, with stops and limits based on the volatility observed in the Bollinger Bands and RSI levels.