Ethereum/Mexican Peso Market Overview

• Price dropped sharply from 82,566 to 77,096 MXN over 24 hours.
• Volatility spiked mid-night with a 1,600 MXN swing in 45 minutes.
• Volume was generally low, with most candles printing no trade volume.
• Late-day recovery stalled near 77,451 MXN, lacking follow-through.
• RSI and MACD suggested oversold conditions but lacked bullish confirmation.

Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) opened at 82,566 MXN on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 82,566 MXN, fell to a low of 75,631 MXN, and closed at 77,096 MXN on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET. Total traded volume was 1.0181 ETH, while turnover amounted to ~82,662 MXN across the 24-hour period.

The 24-hour chart revealed a sharp bearish breakdown from a stable price of 82,566 MXN into a volatile sell-off overnight, peaking around 00:45 ET when price collapsed to 80,500 MXN. A second wave of selling followed into early morning, bringing the price down to 75,631 MXN. The afternoon and early evening saw a cautious attempt at a reversal, with price rising back to 77,451 MXN, but this failed to hold as bearish pressure returned in the last 45 minutes of the period. Notable candlestick patterns included a long bearish shadow in the 00:45 candle and a hanging man formation at 06:15 ET.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart would have crossed lower over the night as the trend turned decisively bearish. The 20- and 50-period MAs likely acted as dynamic resistance during the attempted recovery. Daily MAs (50, 100, 200) would have confirmed a short-term downtrend, with price likely closing below all of them by the end of the session.

MACD turned bearish early in the overnight session, confirming the breakdown. RSI dropped into oversold territory, but without a strong rebound or bullish divergence, this failed to spark a meaningful recovery. Bollinger Bands showed a significant expansion as volatility increased, with price touching the lower band multiple times. This suggests heightened bearish pressure and a high probability of continuation in the short term.

Volume was generally muted throughout the session, with most 15-minute intervals recording zero volume. However, key moments like the 00:45 and 06:15 ET candles saw volume surges of 0.3284 and 0.4565 ETH, respectively. These provided some confirmation of bearish conviction during the selloff. Turnover also spiked during these periods, aligning with price declines and confirming the strength of the move lower.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the 82,566 to 75,631 range would show critical levels at 78,604 (38.2%) and 77,100 (61.8%). The closing price of 77,096 MXN aligns closely with the 61.8% level, suggesting a temporary pause in the downtrend but no reversal signal.

Looking ahead, if bears manage to hold below 77,100, support could extend to 75,631 and then 74,548 MXN. A retest of the 77,451 MXN level may occur, but without a strong reversal pattern or volume confirmation, further downside appears more probable. Traders should monitor MACD and RSI for divergence signs and be cautious of overnight volatility in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis
A backtest strategy could involve entering short positions on a break below key Fibonacci levels (e.g., 77,100 MXN) with a stop loss above the 77,451 MXN resistance. Target levels could be set at 75,631 and 74,548 MXN, with position size proportional to the volume and momentum confirmed at the entry point. Given the current alignment with the 61.8% retracement level and bearish MACD confirmation, this approach appears statistically favorable in the near term.