Ethereum Leads Crypto Rally With 5% Gain, Filecoin Eyes 42% Upside

As the third quarter of 2025 begins, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing a robust rally following a tumultuous second quarter. Ethereum (ETH) is at the forefront of this recovery, surging over 5% today and trading near $2,600. This bullish momentum has lifted many altcoins, with Filecoin (FIL) showing particularly strong technical indicators.

FIL has already gained over 4% today, but the chart pattern that has caught the attention of analysts is its resemblance to a recent breakout structure seen in SEI, which resulted in a 76% rally. A comparison of the daily charts of SEI and FIL reveals a nearly identical setup. SEI had been consolidating within a falling wedge, a classic bullish reversal pattern. Once it broke out above the wedge and surpassed the 100-day moving average (MA), SEI embarked on a powerful 76% rally, eventually pushing above its 200-day MA and confirming a strong trend shift.

FIL appears to be following a similar trajectory. Today, FIL broke out of its own falling wedge formation, marking the first bullish signal. It is now moving towards its 100-day MA resistance, which is near $2.63. This position is reminiscent of where SEI was just before its major breakout, attracting the attention of technical traders and fractal analysts.

If FIL manages to close above the 100-day MA, it could set the stage for a retest of its next major resistance level—the 200-day MA, currently around $3.39. A confirmed breakout above this level could trigger a significant rally, with a potential 42% upside from the current price of $2.39. However, if the move fails and FIL is rejected at resistance, the breakout could turn into a fakeout, potentially leading to more sideways consolidation.