Ethereum Holds Above $2,800, On-Chain Metrics Suggest 32% Gain to $4,000

Ethereum (ETH) has been in a consolidation phase in July 2025, with on-chain data indicating bullish signals. The cryptocurrency has experienced significant upward movements recently, raising questions about whether it can reach the $4,000 price target given the current market conditions.

Ethereum has maintained a holding pattern throughout July, with several positive price movements. As of the latest update, it was trading at $2,962.28, holding above key support levels of $2,800. Trader TedPillows suggested that Ethereum might be preparing for another upward movement, with either a hold or a higher low potentially pushing ETH toward $4,000.

Several on-chain metrics support this view. The MVRV Z-Score, which measures the difference between market value and realized value, has not peaked in this cycle. Historically, when this score begins to climb from low levels, Ethereum's price has followed with substantial gains. The SOPR, which tracks whether investors are selling at a profit or loss, moved above one for the first time this year, often marking a turning point. The NUPL, which shows the gap between unrealized profits and losses, turned positive in May and recently moved above 0.3, a pattern linked to strong rallies in the past.

Despite the current trend, the question remains whether Ethereum has the bullish strength to reach $4,000. The signals suggest it could happen if the momentum holds. This cycle has not seen the extreme highs of past cycles, leaving room for further growth. However, the market remains cautious about overcommitting, while on-chain indicators point upward. External factors such as regulatory news and overall market sentiment also play a role. When the MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL all move into positive territory together, it has often led to significant price movements. The SOPR’s recent flip above one and its ability to hold that level are being closely watched. If this support holds, it may boost buying confidence. Traders are also awaiting the formation of a higher low, which would confirm strength.

As the second half of July begins, Ethereum is still trading within a familiar range. However, this could change quickly with increased buying. Analysts are focused on whether the coin maintains support near recent lows. Any shift in trend would likely be reflected first in the on-chain data. Key indicators to watch include the MVRV staying above zero, the SOPR above one, and the NUPL above 0.3. These trends do not guarantee a rally but suggest that Ethereum still has room to climb. Whether the $4,000 target is reached will depend on how these signals hold up and if sufficient buying pressure follows.

Former Bitmex CEO Arthur Hayes predicted that Ethereum could rally to a new all-time high of $10,000 this year. The data continues to support this view, with Ethereum’s market capitalization pegged at $357.97 billion. The current on-chain indicators and market sentiment suggest that Ethereum has the potential to reach new heights, but the path forward will depend on maintaining positive trends and attracting sufficient buying pressure.