Ethereum's Historical Price Patterns and the Looming Bull Run: A Deep Dive into Cyclical Dynamics and On-Chain Momentum

Ethereum's price trajectory has long been a subject of fascination for investors and analysts alike. While Bitcoin's 4-year halving cycle dominates crypto discourse, Ethereum's unique 8-year cycleIs Ethereum About to Rally? Bullish On-Chain Indicators^[1] offers a distinct lens through which to evaluate its potential for a delayed but powerful bull run. As of September 2025, Ethereum's on-chain metrics—particularly the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio, Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score, and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)—are aligning with historical patterns that have preceded major price surges. This article dissects these dynamics to assess whether Ethereum is primed for a 2026 breakout.

Ethereum's 8-Year Cycle: A Delayed but Potent Pattern

Unlike Bitcoin's predictable 4-year cycle, Ethereum's price action appears to follow an 8-year rhythmETH/BTC’s 8-Year Cycle Chart Shows How High Ethereum Price Can Go This Cycle^[5]. This pattern emerged clearly during the 2017 and 2021 bull runs, with Ethereum peaking roughly two years after Bitcoin. In 2025, Ethereum's price has underperformed relative to Bitcoin, a trend consistent with its cycle's trough phase. However, historical data suggests that this underperformance often precedes a sharp reversal. For instance, Ethereum's 2021 peak occurred in July, while Bitcoin's followed in November—a four-month lag. If this pattern holds, Ethereum could see a significant rally in mid-2026, coinciding with Bitcoin's potential correctionETH/BTC’s 8-Year Cycle Chart Shows How High Ethereum Price Can Go This Cycle^[5].

On-Chain Metrics: The Case for Undervaluation

Ethereum's on-chain activity paints a compelling case for undervaluation. The NVT ratio, a metric comparing market cap to transaction volume, currently stands at 37Ethereum Undervaluation: NVT Ratio Indicates Growth Potential^[2], far below its historical range of 60–110$7,000 MVRV Band Signals Ethereum’s Bullish Potential^[3]. This low ratio suggests that Ethereum's price is not adequately reflecting its network activity—a classic precursor to bullish momentum. For context, the NVT ratio dipped below 40 in late 2018 and early 2020, both times preceding multi-year bull runsEthereum Undervaluation: NVT Ratio Indicates Growth Potential^[2].

The MVRV Z-Score, which measures whether the network is over- or undervalued relative to its realized price, has also turned bullish. A Z-Score below -2 typically signals undervaluation, while a score above +2 indicates overvaluationIs Ethereum About to Rally? Bullish On-Chain Indicators^[1]. As of September 2025, Ethereum's MVRV Z-Score is in negative territory, with long-term holders (LTHs) accumulating below their average cost basisEthereum Undervaluation: NVT Ratio Indicates Growth Potential^[2]. This dynamic mirrors the 2017 and 2021 cycles, where such undervaluation phases were followed by explosive price action$7,000 MVRV Band Signals Ethereum’s Bullish Potential^[3].

Meanwhile, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has crossed above 1, indicating that holders are selling ETH at a profitWhat Does Ethereum Historical Data Says About Its Price Now?^[4]. This metric, which tracks the average profit or loss of sold outputs, often signals a shift in market sentiment. When SOPR exceeds 1, it suggests that selling pressure is profit-driven rather than panic-induced—a bullish sign for sustained price appreciationWhat Does Ethereum Historical Data Says About Its Price Now?^[4].

Institutional Adoption and the 3.2 MVRV Band

Institutional interest in Ethereum has surged, with spot Ethereum ETFs accumulating over $30.17 billion in assetsEthereum Undervaluation: NVT Ratio Indicates Growth Potential^[2]. This capital inflow, coupled with Vitalik Buterin's emphasis on Ethereum's “strong fundamentals and untapped utility,”Ethereum Undervaluation: NVT Ratio Indicates Growth Potential^[2] underscores growing confidence in the ecosystem. Furthermore, Ethereum's price has recently tested a critical support zone between $1,843 and $1,900ETH/BTC’s 8-Year Cycle Chart Shows How High Ethereum Price Can Go This Cycle^[5], a level that historically acts as a floor for recovery.

A key technical target lies at the 3.2 MVRV band, currently priced at $7,000$7,000 MVRV Band Signals Ethereum’s Bullish Potential^[3]. This band has historically served as a breakout threshold, with Ethereum's price surging once it crosses this level. For example, in 2021, Ethereum broke above the 3.2 band in June, triggering a 12-month rally to $4,878. If the current cycle follows a similar trajectory, the $7,000 level could act as a catalyst for a multi-month bull phase.

Conclusion: A Confluence of Cycles and Indicators

Ethereum's 8-year cycle, combined with on-chain metrics pointing to undervaluation, creates a compelling case for a 2026 bull run. The NVT ratio's historic correlation with price surges, the MVRV Z-Score's alignment with past accumulation phases, and the SOPR's shift to profit-taking all reinforce this thesis. While macroeconomic factors and regulatory developments will inevitably play a role, the on-chain data suggests Ethereum is entering a phase where fundamentals and sentiment are converging toward a significant upward move.

For investors, the key takeaway is clear: Ethereum's current price environment mirrors historical undervaluation phases, and the 3.2 MVRV band at $7,000 represents a critical inflection point. As institutional adoption accelerates and on-chain activity strengthens, the stage is set for a breakout that could redefine Ethereum's role in the crypto market.