Ethereum as a Global Trust Infrastructure and Its Trillion-Dollar Valuation Potential: Redefining Blockchain Valuation Through Public-Good Economics and Institutional Adoption

Ethereum's evolution from a speculative asset to a foundational infrastructure layer for global finance and technology marks a paradigm shift in how blockchain networks are valued. Traditionally, cryptocurrencies have been assessed through speculative lenses-price volatility, market cap, or utility in niche applications. However, Ethereum's role as a global trust infrastructure demands a reevaluation of valuation frameworks. By analyzing Ethereum through the lens of public-good economics and institutional adoption, we uncover a compelling case for its trillion-dollar potential.

A New Valuation Framework: Captured Value, Flow Value, and Trust Surplus

William Mougayar, a blockchain analyst and investor, has pioneered a valuation model that reframes Ethereum as a public good akin to foundational technologies like the Internet and GPS according to Mougayar's analysis. His framework breaks Ethereum's value into three components:

1. Captured Value: This represents the financialized layer of Ethereum, including the market cap of ETH and related assets. As of December 2025, captured value is estimated at $0.6–$0.9 trillion.
2. Flow Value: This captures the annual economic activity generated by Ethereum-based transactions, smart contracts, and decentralized applications (dApps). Annual flow value ranges between $300 billion and $3 trillion, reflecting Ethereum's role in enabling trust-minimized transactions.
3. Trust Surplus: The most novel component, trust surplus quantifies the economic benefit of reducing intermediaries, counterparty risk, and fraud. Mougayar estimates this unpriced utility at $150–$600 billion.

Combined, these metrics suggest Ethereum's intrinsic value ranges between $2 trillion and $6 trillion as of 2025-a stark contrast to its current market cap. This discrepancy highlights a mispricing opportunity for investors who recognize Ethereum's systemic role in the digital economy.

Institutional Adoption and the 2025 Inflection Point

2025 marked a turning point for Ethereum, as major financial institutions began leveraging its layer-2 ecosystem for tokenization and on-chain services. Regulatory clarity, particularly in the U.S. and EU, has accelerated institutional participation. For instance, Ethereum ETFs outperformed Bitcoin in Q3 2025, signaling growing confidence in its infrastructure capabilities.

Institutional adoption is further driven by Ethereum's ability to tokenize real-world assets (RWAs), such as real estate, equities, and commodities. By enabling programmable, interoperable tokens, Ethereum reduces settlement friction and reconciliation overhead, making it the default choice for global finance. This shift is not merely speculative-it reflects a structural transition toward decentralized infrastructure.

Challenges in Public-Goods Funding: A Path to Scalability

Despite its progress, Ethereum's public-goods funding ecosystem faces unresolved challenges. The Deployment Problem (when and how to allocate funds), the Allocation Problem (fairly aggregating preferences), and the Impact Problem (measuring outcomes) remain critical barriers to scaling decentralized governance according to research. Addressing these issues will require innovative mechanisms, such as quadratic funding and token-curated registries, to ensure equitable resource distribution and measurable impact.

However, these challenges are not unique to Ethereum. The Internet itself faced similar hurdles in its early stages, yet its systemic value ultimately justified its role as a public good. Ethereum's transition to a global trust underlayer mirrors this trajectory, with institutional and developer communities increasingly prioritizing long-term sustainability over short-term gains.

The Road to $10–$20 Trillion: A 2035 Outlook

Mougayar's projections suggest Ethereum's valuation could reach $10–$20 trillion by 2035, driven by three factors:
1. Digital Asset Tokenization: As RWAs dominate global markets, Ethereum's role in enabling trust-minimized transactions will expand.
2. Institutional Integration: Central banks, corporations, and governments will adopt Ethereum-based solutions for cross-border payments, identity verification, and supply-chain management.
3. Trust Surplus Expansion: As fraud and intermediation costs rise in traditional systems, the economic value of Ethereum's trust-reduction capabilities will grow exponentially.

This trajectory hinges on Ethereum's ability to maintain its decentralized ethos while scaling to meet institutional demands. The recent shift in the Ethereum Foundation's approach-prioritizing enterprise partnerships and regulatory alignment-has already laid the groundwork for this transition.

Conclusion: A Mispriced Systemic Asset

Ethereum's valuation potential lies not in its price per token but in its systemic role as a global trust infrastructure. By redefining blockchain valuation through public-good economics, investors can better appreciate its intrinsic value. The current market cap underprices Ethereum's capacity to reduce friction in global finance, democratize access to capital, and enable new economic models.

For investors, the key insight is clear: Ethereum is not a speculative asset but a foundational infrastructure layer. Its trillion-dollar potential is not a prediction-it is an inevitability, given its trajectory as the "Global Trust Underlayer" of the digital economy.