Ethereum Futures Open Interest Hits $40 Billion Amid Market Speculation

Ethereum’s futures open interest (OI) has reached an unprecedented high of over $40 billion, indicating a surge in leverage and market speculation. Open interest, which represents the total number of active contracts that have not been settled or closed, suggests that a significant number of investors are either speculating on Ethereum’s future price or hedging their spot holdings to manage risk. Historically, an all-time high in OI often precedes substantial price movements, as the accumulation of leveraged positions can lead to short squeezes or long squeezes, depending on trader sentiment. This can also result in liquidations, which can amplify price swings.

According to CoinGlass data, $2 billion in long positions are set for liquidation at $2,600, and $1.8 billion in shorts at $2,900, creating a high-stakes scenario. With liquidity concentrated at both ends, market makers are faced with a critical decision on which side to target next. This situation underscores the volatility and uncertainty in the market, as Ethereum’s price could move in either direction. At the time of writing, ETH was experiencing a pullback, trading at $2,770.

Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have attracted over $800 million in the past two weeks, more than double the inflows of around $400 million seen by Bitcoin ETFs. This surge in interest can be attributed to growing speculation that ETH ETFs will soon incorporate staking, allowing investors to earn yield on their ETH holdings without dealing with the technical aspects. This staking optionality is drawing fresh capital into Ethereum, as Bitcoin ETFs lack similar yield features. Jeff Mei, the COO at a crypto exchange, opined that investors are recognizing the compelling investment opportunity that Ethereum presents, noting that it is still trading well below its all-time highs, while Bitcoin is already near its ATH levels. He added that there is a high probability that Ethereum will reach or surpass its ATH by year’s end. ETH’s historic high price currently sits at $4,878 recorded in November 2021. Additionally, Ethereum exchange supply hitting a 7-year low also paints a bullish picture, thanks to the intensified hodling taking place.

Ethereum’s momentum in mid-2025 is being driven by a resurgence in DeFi activity, fueled by record demand, infrastructure upgrades, and institutional inflows. Ethereum now commands roughly $65.45 billion of DeFi’s global total value locked (TVL). Innovations such as Spectra, EIP-4844 blobs, and the forthcoming Pectra upgrade are reducing fees and boosting scalability, enabling smoother DeFi operations. Additionally, emerging ZK-rollup solutions are proving capable of processing more than 70 swaps per second—a dramatic improvement over Ethereum’s base rate of ~12 TPS. These developments enhance composability and user experience in borrowing, staking, and trading.

Ethereum’s DeFi suite has broadened in functionality, with Lido leading liquid staking, helping depositors earn staking yields while keeping assets liquid for DeFi use. Aave dominates lending markets with its GHO stablecoin and cross-chain lending pools. EigenLayer and EtherFi enable restaking, allowing users to earn extra yield while bolstering network security. Sky (MakerDAO’s evolution) now offers high-yield stablecoins and vaults, growing TVL over 55% in recent months. Ethereum’s deep liquidity and strong developer ecosystem are drawing institutional interest. Whales are shifting assets into self-custody and DeFi vs. exchanges, increasing on-chain demand. Broader macro trends—potential interest-rate cuts and stablecoin growth—boost DeFi yield attractiveness compared to traditional fixed income.

Ethereum remains the dominant platform, hosting over half of the global DeFi TVL. Although competitive ecosystems are growing, none match Ethereum’s composability, developer momentum, or market share. Ethereum’s DeFi renaissance—rooted in record TVL, cross-protocol innovation, on-chain capital flow, and protocol upgrades—has created a positive feedback loop. As TVL rises, more builders are incentivized to innovate, attracting users and assets, reinforcing Ethereum’s network effects. Nevertheless, it remains to be seen how Ethereum plays out in the short term because liquidity is clustered in both bullish and bearish sides, with the psychological price of $3,000 expected to be a turning point.