Ethereum Faces Uncertainty Despite 48% Gain, Institutional Support

Ethereum is currently trading near a critical support zone, with bulls aiming for the $3,000 level. However, the path to this target is fraught with uncertainty due to mixed market signals and technical patterns. The digital asset has experienced recent volatility, keeping traders and analysts on edge.

Ethereum has seen a surge in demand, with 13 consecutive days of inflows into spot ETFs, totaling $56.9 million recently. This institutional investment has helped reinforce the $2,500 support zone. Between May 22 and June 4, ETH-based ETFs in the U.S. brought in $700 million. According to analysts, this level of demand may limit downside pressure in the short term. A crypto trader noted that Ethereum is holding its range support nicely after a recent dump, suggesting a possible rebound if momentum continues.

However, futures markets paint a different picture. ETH two-month futures premiums dropped to 5% on June 5, from 6% a week earlier. Traders typically view a 5%–10% premium as neutral. Since late January, premiums have not exceeded 10%, which may indicate a lack of strong bullish interest. A crypto analyst warned that Ethereum is in a “do or die situation” and that a breakdown could send the price lower. Market watchers suggest that until leveraged positions rise, a breakout above $3,000 may not happen.

Technical charts indicate that Ethereum is forming several bullish patterns. One such setup is the cup and handle, with resistance near $2,795. This pattern aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. A golden cross has also formed, as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages crossed. The last time this happened was in November 2024, after which ETH surged 40%. In addition, a bullish flag pattern is developing, signaling continued consolidation before a possible rally. However, Ethereum has struggled to reclaim the $2,700 mark.

Despite a 48% gain since early May, further upside is now uncertain. Meanwhile, competing blockchains like Solana and BNB Chain are gaining DEX market share. Ethereum’s network fees rose by 150% month-on-month, driven by higher decentralized exchange activity. Still, Ethereum now ranks third in DEX volumes, behind BNB and Solana. Solana’s total value locked rose 2% in 30 days, while Ethereum’s TVL dropped 17% to 25.1 million ETH.

A large Ethereum transaction was recorded on June 5, valued at over $159 million. On-chain tracking service Whale Alert showed that 61,966 ETH was moved between unknown wallets. The sender address, “0x0b26C,” has made several large transfers over the past five days. The recipient, “0x35365,” had no prior record of major transactions. Such movements often cause speculation in the market. Some view it as a sign of preparation for large trades, while others see it as a possible warning for price volatility. This comes at a time when ETH support remains intact, any sharp move could test the lower boundary of the current range.

Despite strong ETF flows, Ethereum’s network activity has not grown at the same pace. Decentralized apps are now choosing to build on other chains or launch independent networks. These changes may affect Ethereum’s market position in the long run.