Ethereum Faces 25% Drop Risk as Whale Moves $237 Million in ETH

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is facing significant downside risks as its native token, Ether (ETH), has broken below a key multi-year support level. This technical breakdown puts a target of $1,600 in play, representing a potential 25% drop from current levels. The bearish sentiment is further amplified by the actions of a major whale, who recently moved over $237 million in ETH to various exchanges, including HTX, Bybit, and OKX.

On the two-week chart, Ether has slipped below the lower trendline of a symmetrical triangle that had held firm since mid-2022. The 50-period exponential moving average (EMA), which aligns with the triangle’s lower trendline, has formed a resistance confluence that ETH bulls have repeatedly failed to overcome in recent months. Other indicators of bearish pressure include Ethereum’s relative strength index (RSI), which remains below a multi-year descending trendline, indicating waning bullish momentum.

Ethereum’s onchain data further highlights the risk of ETH price declines in the coming weeks. Earlier in June, two Ethereum wallets, 0x14e4 and 0x26Bb, unstaked and withdrew 95,920 ETH (~$237 million). Of that, 62,289 ETH (~$154 million) has already been deposited to exchanges, while the remaining 33,631 ETH (~$83 million) still sits in the whale’s address, potentially ready to be sold. This large ETH transfer to exchanges aligns with a recent report showing Ethereum inflows into Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange by volume, have persisted for five consecutive days.

Glassnode data reveals further bearish undercurrents. The ETH supply held by addresses with 10,000–100,000 ETH has declined sharply since mid-May, while the 1,000–10,000 ETH cohort has seen a parallel rise. This indicates that large holders are either breaking up their wallets into smaller chunks or distributing ETH to new, possibly offloading, addresses, thus raising the cryptocurrency’s downside bias.

Despite the bearish outlook, some analysts remain optimistic about Ether’s long-term prospects. Analyst Agela notes that Ether’s breakout above its weekly RSI resistance is only a “matter of time.” He believes this will be the catalyst for price appreciation, adding that since Q1 2024, ETH weekly RSI has made lower lows, which is why ETH hasn’t been able to reclaim $4,000. Other analysts further predict that the Ether price will rally toward $10,000 due to supportive technical indicators and persistent market trends.